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24 Aug 2023

"Soft landing" narrative is now the consensus. This also happened in 2000 and 2006...

Source: Game of Trades

23 Aug 2023

Wage inflation: UPS workers approve massive new labor deal with big raises. The deal passed with 86.3% of votes, the highest contract vote in the history of Teamsters at UPS, according to the union

Under the new agreement: 1. Part time workers will make no less than $21/hour, up from a minimum of $15.50 currently, 2. Full time workers will average $49/hour. Current workers will get $2.75 more an hour this year and $7.50 an hour more over the five-year contract. 3. UPS drivers will average $170,000/year 4. Contract impacts ~340,000 workers 5. The company cut its full-year revenue and margin forecasts, citing the “volume impact from labor negotiations and the costs associated with the tentative agreement.” UPS has put $30 billion aside for this new contract

23 Aug 2023

Over 60% of outstanding US mortgages have an interest rate below 4%. Current average 30y mortgage rate is north of 7.5%...

This is the 1 factor driving the limited housing supply as many of these homeowners can't afford to move... Source: Charlie Bilello, National Mortgage Database

23 Aug 2023

The Bank of Japan is purchasing government bonds at a record pace this year

A factor that likely prompted its recent move to allow larger yield movements to reduce the strain on its control of longer-term #interestrates. Source: Bloomberg

23 Aug 2023

Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany

Producer Prices drop for 1st time since 2020, a good leading indicator for Consumer Prices. In July, producer prices (PPI) fell by 6.0% YoY, the biggest decline since October 2009, when the financial crisis has caused prices to collapse. Last year, the prices received by manufacturers for their goods had at times risen at a record rate of 45.8%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

21 Aug 2023

Treasury 10-Year real yield tops 2% for first time since 2009

The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries extended its ascent from year-to-date lows near 1%.
Rising real yields reflect firmer economy and higher deficit.
Source: Bloomberg

18 Aug 2023

In 2009 China sparked global reflation. In 2023, could China to spark global deflation?

Source: www.zerohedge.com

18 Aug 2023

"inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman

Source: Charlie Bilello

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