Are US consumers heading for trouble?
Only $200 billion is left in excess savings, which is keeping households afloat. 2 months ago, this number was at $500 billion. At current rate, savings will be depleted by September 2023 Source: Game of trades
Unprecedented times in Argentina
- On Monday, Argentina’s central bank raised interest rates to 118%. - Forex: you now get a record 350 Argentine Pesos for each US Dollar. - Argentina 30-year mortgage is now at a record 82.2%. - For the first time since 1991, their inflation rate is above 100%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Looking at the recent sales transactions, house prices have accelerated significantly in the last 4 months to record levels, now growing at almost a 10% annualized rate
As a remainder, shelter costs / rents jave been putting upward pressure on core CPI and are expected to ease. Really? Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
Soccerflation...Perks that Neymar Júnior will receive in Saudi Arabia:
• €100M-a-year salary • House with 25 bedrooms • 40x10 meter swimming pool and 3 saunas • 5 full-time staff for his house • Bentley Continental GT • Aston Martin DBX • Lamborghini Huracán • 24-hour driver • all bills for hotels, restaurants and various services during his OFF days will be sent to the club headquarters to be paid • Private plane at his disposal for his travels • €500,000 for each social media post that promotes Saudi Arabia Source: The world of Statistics
UK headline inflation cooled sharply in July to an annual 6.8%, but the core consumer price index remained unchanged, posing a potential headache for the Bank of England
The headline CPI reading was in line with a consensus forecast among economists polled by Reuters, and follows the cooler-than-expected 7.9% figure of June. Despite the decline, UK inflation is still the highest among "advanced" economies (see upper chart below). On a monthly basis, the headline CPI decreased by 0.4% versus a consensus forecast of -0.5%. However, core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — stayed 6.9%, unchanged from June and slightly above a consensus forecast of 6.8%.
European gas spikes on market jitters over LNG strike risk
European natural gas futures spiked for the second time in less than a week, with market tensions running high over the possibility of strikes in Australia that could severely tighten the global market.
Source: Bloomberg
Michael Burry is an outstanding contrarian investor and did exceptionally well during the 2006-2008 US housing crash
However, performance is not always repeatable and his next bets haven't paid off that well (at least the market views shared publicly - hedge fund long-term performance looks quite strong on a sharper ratio basis). Adam Khoo had a look at all of Michael Burry's recent predictions and he shared it with a chart on X. Here's a summary: In 2005, Predicted the collapse of the subprime mortgage market -> Housing market crashes in 2008, Global Financial Crisis. On Dec 2015, he predicted that the stock market would crash within the next few months. -> SPX +11% Next 12 months. On May 2017, he predicted a global financial meltdown-> SPX +19% Next 12 months. On Sept 2019, he predicted that the stock market would crash due to a bubble in index ETFs -> SPX +15% Next 12 months. Source: Adam Khoo Trader
We are approaching quite a formidable global #debt maturity wall...
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Morgan Stanley
