Sentiment is turning bullish. Bears in the AAII sentiment poll moved from over 50% to under 20% during November
This is the lowest bearish % since Jan 2018 (which followed 2017's record 12 straight up months). What changed? Prices. The S&P 500 gained 8.9% in November, one of its best months ever. $SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
As of the end of October, investor's sentiment index was almost at maximum fear
But November turns out to instead be among one of the greatest months in stock market history. Source: J-C Parets
Hedging demand has fallen sharply with the cost to protect against a market selloff down by around 10%, or one-standard deviation, tumbling to the lowest ever in data starting in 2013
Demand for tail-risk hedges that pay out in an equity fall as precipitous as 30% has also dropped and is hovering around the lowest level since March.- Bloomberg
Wall Street biggest bear (BofA's Harnett) turns bullish as investors' sentiment turns extremely bearish (which is bullish from a contrarian perspective)
Indeed, with the S&P down in five of the past seven weeks, BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator just printed at 1.9 (extreme bearish), which according to Hartnett means that a contrarian buy signal for risk assets has been triggered.
Ahead of Powell speech tomorrow...
Confidence in the Chair of the Federal Reserve has reached its lowest point in 20 years... By Visual capitalist
Soft landing?
U.S. Economic Optimism Index plummeted to 36.3 in October, the lowest reading ever recorded. Source: Barchart
EXTREME FEAR ?
-> Stock Market Fear & Greed Index falls to 16, the most fearful its been in the last year. Meanwhile, only 8% of $SPX stocks are currently trading above their respective 50-day moving averages, representing a 2%ile move over the last decade... Source: barchart
“Soft Landing” is still the consensus. But consensus doesn’t have a good track record...
Source: Game of Tardes
