Headline CPI Hotter Than Expected In December, Food Costs Hit Record High
>>> Headline Consumer Price Inflation printed hotter than expected in December, +0.3% MoM vs +0.2% exp and +0.1% prior, pushing the YoY headline CPI up to +3.4% (from +3.1% prior and hotter than the +3.2% exp)... >>> US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) rose 0.3% MoM as expected, dropping the YoY change below 4.00% (3.93%) for the first time since May 2021. This was also above estimates of 3.8% yoy. >>> Goods deflation has stalled as the used cars and trucks index rose 0.5 percent over the month, after rising 1.6 percent in November. Food costs stand at record highs. Fuel costs are on the rise again. >>> More problematically for The Fed is the fact that Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter (SuperCore) rose 0.4% MoM, upticking the YoY rise to +4.09%...(see chart below). All the subsectors of SuperCore rose MoM with the shelter index increased 6.2 percent over the last year, accounting for over two thirds of the total increase in the all items less food and energy index. >>> Market reaction: 10Y hit 4.06% and sp500 futures are sligthly down. Prediction markets are severely discounting a March rate cut. We started 2024 with a 70%+ chance that interest rate cuts begin by March. After the strong jobs report and a hot inflation reading, odds have nearly HALVED. Still, markets are pricing in 6 rate cuts in 2024, DOUBLE what the Fed is guiding. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
Goldman believes that the 5% EPS forecast for sp500 is too low as a strong economy and falling interest rates should lead to positive surprises
Source: Bloomberg
This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more
Source: Bespoke
Remember, nearly all of the S&P 500 ETF's $SPY gains since its inception have come from the day after down days. A good reminder after the two red days we've seen to start the year
Source: Bespoke
Here's how the SP500 performs during election years $SPY Buy the May dip for the summer rally?
Source: Trendspider
Between 2:00 and 4:00 PM ET today, the S&P 500 erased ~$600 billion of market cap
To put this in perspective, the S&P 500 added ~$600 billion of market cap over the last week. The index was up for 10 straight days but erased 5 of those daily gains in 2 hours. The volatility index, $VIX, spiked ~10% in a matter of minutes. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
FedEx is not the market, but...
...has moved in perfect tandem with thee SPX for some time. Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv
In just 5 days, $SPY has taken in $50B+, more than any other ETF YTD! This is the biggest 5-day take for $SPY since January 2018
This is the biggest 5-day take for $SPY since January 2018. FYI - the following week Jan 30, 2018, was vol-maggeon, (the $VIX went from 12 to 50 in 3 days and the $SPX plunged 10+% in 9 days) Source: Jim Bianco
