Markets are full risk-on since November 9th
The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 have underperformed the equal weighted indices. They got beat up pretty badly by the Russell 2000 and have been left in the dust by Regional Banks and $ARKK (Ark Invest Innovation ETF). Source: Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
The average market strategist's 2024E S&P 500 target is 4837 with EPS of $237 for a return of 2.5% (excluding dividends) and a P/E of 20.4
Source: Julian Klymochko
The S&P 500 technology sector's relative strength versus the broad market is at its highest level since March 2000
Source: Charlie Bilello
Regarding the stock market, the sp500 is exactly at the same level it was two years ago today, December 6, 2021. As the black line shows, the change in the index is up just 0.17%
Meanwhile, the 3-month T-Bill (orange line) is up 6.3% over the same period. Source: Bianco Research
(Source: Bespoke) As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 total return is within 1.1% of its prior all-time high from 1/3/22
In addition to nearing its prior highs, the pattern of the S&P 500 looks a lot like a cup and handle which technicians consider to be a bullish formation. Source: J-C Gand
The P/E ratio on the S&P 500 is currently 21.3, with a multiple expansion of 9% in 2023
The average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 since 1989 is 19.2. Source: Charlie Bilello
Most important correlation breakdown of 2023, according to BofA:
The S&P 500 soared >19% YTD led by "Magnificent Seven" (now 30% of market cap). Tech stocks hit 100-year relative high (despite global liquidity (G3 Central Bank Balance sheet) -$1.8tn.
This month will go down as one of the best ever for the S&P 500
Did you know that after previous months that gained >8% continued strong returns were common? Higher a year later 90% of the time and up 15.8% on average. Source: Ryan Detrick
