Total Returns since inception of the S&P 500 ETF in January 1993...
S&P 500 ETF $SPY: +1,640% Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A: +4,100% Apple $AAPL: +40,580% Source: Charlie Bilello
NY FED recession probability is on highs
Unemployment is going up. Similar pattern was right before most previous recessions. Source: Wall Street Silver
One year before US elections...
President Biden’s approval rating is the lowest out of every president one year out from the election since Jimmy Carter. The news comes as a new swing state poll from The New York Times shows Donald Trump defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup. According to the poll, if the election were held today, Trump would beat Biden in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Biden’s approval rating is sitting at 37% one year out from the election. Trump and Obama were at 43% at this same point in their presidency while Jimmy Carter was at 32%. Source: Collin Rugg
World debt has rapidly increased since 1997. And is now around $225 trillion. Is it sustainable?
Source: Game of Trades
Even with gold near ATHs, central banks are still buying record tonnage of yellow metal...
Source: FT
Median sector returns in the year before Election Day: Tech does not like elections
Source: TME, GS
Ford's Rise to Investment Grade Sparks Historic Shift in Junk Bond Market!
Ford's recent credit rating upgrade to Investment Grade status triggered a remarkable $46.8 billion exit from junk bond indexes, marking the most significant reduction in the global junk bond benchmark since 2005. This makes Ford the largest "rising star" in history. It underscores a transformation in corporate priorities, with a heightened focus on financial resilience amidst economic uncertainties. The trend of "fallen angels" descending into junk status has notably decelerated, and analysts anticipate more companies achieving investment grade status in the coming years. Source: Bloomberg #Finance #InvestmentGrade #JunkBonds 📉📊📈
The sudden deterioration of US economic surprises is among the factors behind the recent decline in long duration bonds
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura, TME
