This scatter plot shows where growth tech valuations stand based on 2024 metrics
Source: Shay Boloor
UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly, Tempering Talk of Rate Cuts
UK inflation disappoints at both the headline and core levels: Headline inflation rose to 4.0% in December, above the consensus forecast looking for it to fall from 3.9% to 3.8%. Core inflation, which was also expected to fall, remained unchanged at 5.1%. Source: Bloomberg
The Influence of Family-Owned Businesses, by Share of GDP
by The Visual Capitalist
The valuation gap between the S&P 500 $SPX and the rest of the world continues to widen
Source: FT, Barchart
Trump's odds of winning the election are now at the highest, and 3 ppts above Biden.
As Goldman notes, on balance, a Republican 'sweep' looks likely to increase the chances of a stronger USD, higher breakeven inflation rates, higher yields, and a steeper yield curve. It may also increase the tails in both directions for energy prices. Source: Predictit, www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
China stocks cbear market continues unabated
As Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 3.06% afterweaker than expected GDP numbers were released, while China’s CSI 300 index shed 0.73%. Meanwhile, AMC Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF went limit up today after Chinese traders ignored warnings to avoid chasing gains in Japanese Stocks. This ETF trades with a 9.5% premium over its net asset value... Source: Bloomberg, Barchart
U.S. Banks are facing unrealized losses of roughly $685 billion. They are desperately hoping the Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner rather than later.
Source: Barchart, FDIC
On the timing of the first cut, Waller said he believes that the FOMC will be able to lower the funds rate “this year.”
Main culprits from yesterday's pullback in Wall Street were comments by Governor Waller in a speech and discussion as they raised the risk that the first cut could come slightly later than the market's expectation of March and that the pace of cuts could be quarterly from the outset, rather than the market's more aggressive forecast of three initial consecutive cuts followed by a switch to a quarterly pace. On the speed of cuts, Waller said the funds rate “can and should be lowered methodically and carefully” and that he sees “no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” when the FOMC was combating recessions. Waller also noted that next month's scheduled revisions to CPI inflation (the seasonal factors will be revised on February 9) could influence his thinking on rates cuts, especially if the revised data show a less clear deceleration recently. The result was most evident in the drop in the market's expectations for a rate-cut in March...
