As Torsten Slok from Apollo posted this weekend, a US corporate default cycle has started the markets are not paying attention
Source: Vignesh Vijayakumar
25 Years of $LVMH Revenue Growth per Business Group
Visualized by Quartr
JACKSON HOLE: A RISK MANAGEMENT SPEECH
FACTS: The overall tone of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was relatively hawkish but not as hawkish as some feared on the back of recent strong data. It was also less hawkish than last year. The main message is that The Fed is definitely on hold but leaning on a more hawkish stance should data don’t show more progress in inflation / growth cooling down. OUR TAKE: The big event is now behind us, and we didn’t learn anything new. Powell believes that monetary policy is tight, but he opens the door to an even tighter one. With regards to macro data, they are going into the right direction but there is a risk of further upside, i.e interest rates path remains very data dependent which means that markets will now turn its attention to PCE inflation and US jobs data (next week). The Fed is likely to stay nervous as long as they see evidence of a serious break in job growth below the 200K pace. We are not there yet, which means that in the coming weeks, we will likely see macro volatility leading to market volatility. Our view remains that central bankers want first and foremost to avoid the big mistake (rather than targeting a pre-defined target). In the previous decade, central bankers wanted to avoid the deflation trap, hence the over-printing. This time, they want to avoid the risk of another round of inflation. Hence the temptation of over-tightening. MARKET REACTION: Rate-hike expectations initially moved lower but then reverted higher after investors actually read and listened to his speech. 2Y yields are back to July highs and equity markets are whipsawing.
“I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.” — Oscar Wilde
Source: Philosophy Quotes
The U.S. has accumulated as much debt in the last 10 years as in the entire 100 years before that
From 1923 - 2013: $16 trillion , From 2013 - 2023: $16 trillion Source: FRED
US Budget Deficits Are Exploding Like Never Before
Some economists and investors warn that the Biden administration’s fiscal spending—it’s pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into programs to bolster domestic manufacturing of electric cars and semiconductors, and to repair roads and bridges—could rekindle inflation and make it hard for the Fed to dial back its rate hikes. Source: Bloomberg
Watches of Switzerland shares plunge by a quarter after Rolex buys retailer Bucherer
The UK’s biggest seller of Rolex watches lost nearly a third of its value on Friday after the Swiss brand bought Bucherer AG, taking its first major step into retailing. Watches of Switzerland Group Plc shares fell as much as 30%, wiping out almost £500 million ($629 million) in market capitalization. Rolex unveiled the surprise move to buy Bucherer late Thursday, prompting analysts to question what the deal means for Watches of Switzerland’s future relationship with the brand. Peel Hunt’s Jonathan Pritchard noted that Rolex accounts for half of the company’s sales, and cut his rating on the stock to hold from buy. Rolex executives assured the UK’s biggest retailer of the brand that it will continue to be allocated watches by the same distribution system, Watches of Switzerland Chief Executive Officer Brian Duffy said in an interview. Source: Bloomberg
After the outstanding Nvidia figures and outlook, analysts have raised the avg price target for the chip giant from $520 to $620
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
