As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter >>> Buy Now Pay Later spending soars 20% compared to last year on Black Friday
It's also expected to jump 19% on Cyber Monday to a record $782 million. As excess savings in the US have gone from $2 trillion to zero, Americans are relying on debt more than ever. In other words, "deals" that are 20% off are being financed with credit card debt that has a 30% interest rate...
Hong Kong local bank rate (HIBOR) jumped to its highest level in 16 years
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Interest rate on credit card debt has risen to 21.19%
To put this in perspective, this rate was at 14.56% in early 2022. That’s a 6% + jump in less than 2 years. Current levels have NEVER been seen in over 25 years. This is happening at a time when credit card debt has crossed the $1 trillion threshold. To make things worse, personal interest payments have crossed $500 billion. Source: Game of Trades
U.S. Bank Losses on held-to-maturity assets have soared to an ALL-TIME HIGH of $400 Billion! 👀
Source: Barchart, FT
US bank stocks never recovered from the regional banking crisis. Currently, US bank stocks are at record lows relative to the S&P 500
According to Moodys, major US banks are sitting on $650 billion in unrealized losses. Meanwhile, the looming commercial real estate (CRE) crisis has small banks in question. Small banks currently hold ~70% of all CRE loans in the US, $1.5 trillion of which need to be refinanced by 2025. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
US Commercial Bank deposits fell 2.5% over the last 2 years, the largest 2-year decline on record
Source: Charlie Bilello
U.S. Banks have fallen to an all-time low against the S&P 500
Source: FT, Barchart
For only the 3rd time in the last 50 years, commercial bank credit has declined by more than 2%
The other 2 times were the peak of the Dot Com Bubble and the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Source: barchart
