Ahead of Fed minutes... The market is now pricing in a 0% probability of a rate hike in December and rate cuts starting in May 2024
Source: Charlie Bilello
US Leading Indicators Tumble For 19th Straight Month
Worst Streak 'Since Lehman' on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 7.6% (down YoY for 16 straight months) - close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Fed monetary policy tightening (+525 basis points of interest rates hike + $1.15 Trillion of Fed balance sheet reduction) since 2022 has been quite brutal
2023 has been a miracle so far with headline inflation declining to 3% WITHOUT a recession and no increase in unemployment rate. But can it last? What could be the lagged effects of such a tightening? (chart courtesy of Tavi Costa)
Which countries have the most rate sensitive household sectors?
Source: BCA, The Longview
2024 outlook in one picture
Source: Hedgeye
US Continuing Jobless Claims Surges To 2 Year High
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week jumped to 231k (from an upwardly revised 218k), up to its highest since August...Worse still, continuing claims keeps rising, to 1.864mm - the highest since November 2021... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Let's hope the US economy is truly slowing down -- particularly manufacturing --, and that the winter is mild
US stocks of distillate fuel (diesel and heating oil) are ending the fall season at their lowest **seasonal** level in data since 1982 | Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg
[Tweet by Bob Eliott] china faces the most classic dilemma in macro with an economy that is too weak and in need of additional easing and at the same time a desire for exchange rate stability
After months of keeping money too tight to stabilize the FX, at the first sign of FX strength they eased... Source chart: The Daily Shot
![[Tweet by Bob Eliott] china faces the most classic dilemma in macro with an economy that is too weak and in need of additional easing and at the same time a desire for exchange rate stability](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1700087239074.jpg)