Morgan Stanley industrial team runs through their conclusions coming out of a choppy earnings season
A double-digit short-cycle slowdown is getting priced in, but ongoing inventory and incremental capex pressures are not. Source: MS, TME
Mortgage demand is now down 50% from pre-pandemic levels and at its lowest level since 1994
From its peak in 2021, mortgage demand is down ~64%. Current mortgage demand is ~75% below the 2005 peak. The most incredible part of this? Mortgage rates are still only at their historical average. Housing market activity is coming to a halt. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for an increase of 170,000. The United Auto Workers strikes were primarily responsible for the gap as the impasse meant a net loss of jobs for the manufacturing industry. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Employment as measured in the household survey, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 348,000 workers, while the rolls of the unemployed rose by 146,000. A more encompassing jobless rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point. Meanwhile, Household Survey showed a huge 348k loss in jobs during October. Dollar drops, Bond yields slide following VERY disappointing US jobs data which fuel bets Fed is done Source: CNBC, Bloomberg
Belgium and Netherlands are now in deflation
Source: SocGen, TME
EUROZONE DEBT & GDP
Source: WinfieldSmart, The Daily Shot
Interest costs as a share of US corporate profits are near the lowest levels in 40 years
This is partly because many companies have locked in long-term financing at low rates. This has kept profit margins elevated. Maybe companies are better to manage their debt schedule than the US Treasury... Source: The daily shot, Lance Roberts
Feed a family of 5 (hamburger, fries, shake) for $2.25 in June 1961
BLS CPI calculator says that's same as $23.24 today... Inflation calculator -> Source: Rudy Havenstein
The end of the rate hikes is typically followed by plateaus before rate cuts begin
The end of the rate hikes may not be here yet, and the Fed has already said a many times for months that the plateau is going to be “higher for longer". How long will the plateau be this time? Source: Wolfstreet
