Standard Chartered is ramping up its bullish Bitcoin prediction
Targeting as much as $120,000 by the end of 2024 — almost quadruple the current price — as increasingly cash-rich miners reduce sales of the token. “Increased miner profitability per BTC mined means they can sell less while maintaining cash inflows, reducing net BTC supply and pushing BTC prices higher,” Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered wrote Monday.
The bull-market is one-year old and the leadership has been unusual
• Since 1980, every single end to a bear market and start of a new bull has been accompanied by a broad rally in stocks, with the Equal Weight Index and small-caps stocks outperforming the S&P 500. • This time is different: the S&P 500 is heavily influenced by the 10 largest companies, which have enjoyed outsized returns. The so-called "magnificent seven" (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla) are up 77% over the past 12 months. But the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which assigns the same weight to all the stocks that are included, is up a more modest 11% for the same timeframe. Small-cap stocks are up 5%. Source: Edward Jones
Two different years
Two different reactions by growth stocks. Source: J-C Parets
Maximum 3-month total return 60/40 nominal drawdown
Source: TME, Haver
Relative performance of prior bull market leader vs. the next bull market leader (beginning of bull market = 100)
Source: BofA, TME
In case you missed it: technology hit a new all-time relative high
And this is on an equally-weighted basis. So it is not just 7 stocks... Source: J-C Parets
Who has the losses on the books? Value of global bonds has lost another $1.04tn. This brings the total losses to $3.9tn since mid-July
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Long dated bonds: are investors in denial?
As $TLT and $ZROZ duration bond funds fell in price, their assets under management kept increasing as investors just kept pouring their funds in. Source: Lyn Alden
