Bonds are looking the most attractive vs stocks in decades, according to one metric
The gap between the earnings yield of the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year Treasuries dropped to around 1.1 percentage point last week, its narrowest since 2002. Source: Lisa Abramowicz
August SP500 seasonality
Source: Bloomberg
The Top Performing S&P 500 Sectors Over the Business Cycle
Source: Barchart, Markets in Minute
If the S&P500 is going to take a well-deserved break, this would be a perfectly logical time in the cycle for that to happen according to S&P 500 pre-election cycle
Source: J-C Parets
The S&P 500 Technology sector forward P/E to that of the SP500 is not as expensive as it was during the Internet bubble
However, the PEG ratio (forward PE divided by consensus long-term EPS growth rate) is roughly at the same level. Source: Game of Trades
The SP500 is now 5% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
With 46% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q2 GAAP earnings per share are up 7% over the last year, the highest YoY growth rate since Q4 2021.
Source: Charlie Bilello
It has never been cheaper to hedge against a market crash
According to Bank of America's derivatives strategists, it has never cost less to protect against an #sp500 crash drawdown in the next 12 months. Why is the cost of longer-dated S&P protection at record lows today? The most common explanations are a mix of fundamentals (e.g. a recession, if it materializes, will be short-lived and shallow; or, realized correlation is too low to warrant higher implied correlation) and vol technicals (e.g. the supply of vega on US underlyings for yield remains robust; or, due to the rise of short-dated option selling, the next shock will likely be a “gamma event” in which systemic tenors of risk don’t react strongly). Source: BofA, www.zerohedge.com
