U.S. earnings Revisions Index from Citi has been in negative territory for past six weeks …
Longest streak since beginning of this year. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders
Inspirational quote from Bruce Lee
Source: European Leadership
Forward S&P 500 Performance by VIX Decile
While a low VIX indicates that investors are complacent and signal that unexpected negative events could push the VIX upwards (and thus equity markets downward), a low VIX reading isn’t necessarily something to fear. As shown on this chart courtesy of Todd Sohn, it is a typical characteristic of bull markets. Source: J-C Parets
Orange Juice cannot be stopped as it surges to another all-time high.
It's up 18% over the last 2 weeks - source: Barcharts
6 goods & services with a lower price today than a year ago...
Source: HolgerZ, make it
Why a "hawkish hold" by the Fed remains a high probability outcome.
The bar for the Fed to start cutting interest rates is high. It is also worthwhile to remember that Powell job remains a difficult one in light of what has been taking place since the start of the hiking rates cycle and more recently. Indeed, 1) the unemployment rate is exactly where it was when the Fed started hiking last March...(hot job market = wage pressure =higher inflation) - see UPPER CHART BELOW 2) Financial conditions are now far easier than where they were last September... 3) The S&P 500 is back where it was just as the Fed started hiking - see LOWER CHART 4) Meanwhile, commodity prices are starting to ramp up, which could add upward pressure on headline inflation. Bottom line: while markets expect rate cuts to soon follow due to cooling inflation, there is a very decent probability that the Fed might be forced holding tight. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Commodities on the run
Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is currently having its best monthly performance since March. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders
Latest outlook from IMF shows expectation for global growth this year up to +3% year/year
2024 growth also at +3% … expectation is for U.S. to grow 1.8% this year, 0.2%-point increase from April; China expected to grow 5.2%, unchanged from April. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders