BREAKING 🚨 US employment data...
Federal Reserves faces up to 1 million US jobs "vanishing" in potentially the largest downward jobs revision in 15 years, according to Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million. There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year. Such figures also have the potential of shaping the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at week’s end in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are trying to gain insight as to when and how much the central bank will start lowering interest rates as inflation and the job market cool. Source: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
Here's a look at the 30 best performing S&P 500 stocks over the last 20 years since Alphabet $GOOGL IPO'd
NVIDIA $NVDA is on top followed by Apple $AAPL, Netflix $NFLX and then Monster Beverage $MNST. Alphabet ranks 11th just behind Salesforce $CRM. Source: Bespoke
Average daily options volume this month hits highest level since Volmageddon (February 2018) 🚨
Source: Barchart
JUST IN: U.S. elections - The Democratic Party releases its platform, with no mention of Bitcoin or crypto
The Democratic Party's official 2024 platform was released yesterday (Monday) on day one of the Democratic National Convention, without any mention of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. This decision aligns with the past four years of the Biden-Harris administration's hostility towards the industry. Despite the growing significance of Bitcoin and digital assets, neither Kamala Harris or Tim Walz, who are running for president and vice president in the upcoming election this November, has prioritized the inclusion of Bitcoin and crypto in the party's agenda. Source: Bitcoin magazine, www.zerohedge.com
Why you need to invest, in one chart
Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the SP500 has gained 962% (8% per year) after adjusting for inflation. Source: Charlie Bilello
All eyes on Jackson Hole this week
Looking at historical returns, it is rarely a big deal for markets. Will this time be different? Source: The Transcript
Retail investors are all in
Retail investors' inflows into U.S. stocks jumped over the last 2 weeks to their highest levels in at least 12 months. Aggregate net retail 5-day moving average purchases have more than DOUBLED in a month and hit~$1.7 billion last week. This comes after the S&P 500 fell ~7%, providing what proved to be a buying opportunity. Following the inflows, the S&P 500 surged over 8% from its low and is now 1.5% away from a new all time high. The risk appetite for stocks is still strong. Source: FT, The Kobeissi Letter
Is Powell a super hero?
As highlighted by Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA in a post, despite interest rates at +20-year highs and QT still ongoing, we have: - the stock market at all-time high - gold at all-time-high - the total value of US real estate at a new record high - bitcoin at $60k. Meanwhile, inflation is cooling down while the US economy seems to be in decent shape with unemployment rate near record low. So far so good for the FED chair. Image by Adam Tooze on X
