Rising real rates are going to inflict real pain on a variety of asset classes, particularly longer duration risk
BofA, Markets & Mayhem 🤖
A potential black swan which could follow this week-end attack: both Saudi & Iran oil supply going down?
Source chart: Bloomberg
The global EPS cycle continues to improve, with nominal GDP growth continuing to support the cycle
Source: SocGen, TME
Israel's Benchmark Index TA-35 plunges >6%, biggest drop since March 2020 after Hamas attack
The Hamas assaults mark the deadliest attack on Israel in decades and threaten to escalate into a broader conflict. Israeli shekel has slumped toward 7y low in recent days, ahead of the scheduled reopening of Israel’s parliament later this month. (HolgerZ via BBG)
What could be the impact on oil markets of the sudden war between Israel and Hamas (and the risks it could escalate)?
What could be the impact on oil markets of the sudden war between Israel and Hamas (and the risks it could escalate)? Some analysts see upside risk to à150 - others (e.g GS) are more mitigated. Reduced probability of Saudi-Israeli normalization and associated boost to Saudi production. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday afternoon (before the attacks) that “Saudi Arabia has told the White House it would be willing to boost oil production early next year if crude prices are high—a move aimed at winning goodwill in Congress for a deal in which the kingdom would recognize Israel and in return get a defence pact with Washington, Saudi and U.S. officials said.” In GS view, the escalating conflict in Gaza reduces the likelihood of a near-term normalization in Saudi-Israeli relations. Source: www.zerohedge.com, WSJ, GS, Alpine Macro
BofA forecasts that ~48M US patients will have seen anti obesity medications by 2030
Source: TME, BofA
Relative performance of prior bull market leader vs. the next bull market leader (beginning of bull market = 100)
Source: BofA, TME
Central banks have continued to load up on the yellow metal
They added 77 tonnes to their gold reserves in August. Net buying is closing in on recent "highs". Gold is trading without much trend, but we are at very big levels. Source: Variant perception, TME
