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One asset class - two different bets => hedge funds are shorting US treasuries at historic levels while asset managers are doing the exact opposite 👀
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
The lagging effects of higher interest rates ?
Yellow Corp. filed for bankruptcy and will remain shuttered after the trucking firm’s long-running financial woes (rising bond & loan payments) were compounded by a dispute with its labor force (wage inflation). The firm closes after nearly 100 years and leaves 30k employees jobless (this will likely be reflected in a lower payroll print for August). Source: Bloomberg
US Bank credit YoY is now -0.2% YoY. First time negative since 08 (Keep in mind that in the US about 25% of credit is securities and the other 75% loans)
Source: FRED, Adem Tumerkan
The fact that Retail investors are rapidly buying the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - despite the bond bloodbath - could mean that the sentiment is far from being oversold
From a contrarian perspective, this is NOT a positive for long-dated bonds. Source: The Daily Shot, Bloomberg, VandaTrack
EM returns over past 5-10yrs have been lackluster, w/most EM equities returning low-to-mid single digits
Over longer-term, returns range from extraordinary (India: 1000%) to respectable (Indonesia: 469%) despite volatility & some prolonged periods of choppy trading, BofA has calculated. All EMs have outperformed China's 22% total return. Source: HolgerZ, BofA, Bloomberg
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