Syz the moment

In just 1 year, the average interest rate on credit card debt has gone from 14% to 21%+. New car loan rates went from 4% to 8% while used car loan rates are at 12%+. Mortgage rates are at a fresh high of 7.2%, up from 2.7% in 2021. Will the US consumer be able to absorb all these debt servicing costs? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Macrobond, IN

Moody's said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. This does not come as a surprise to us as US banks are facing several headwinds at the time being: 1) Inverted yield curve and lower trading / M&A activity weighing on profitability; 2) Deteriorating loan book quality due to Commercial real estate exposure but also US consumers starting to being hit by rising debt costs (credit card, mortgages, etc.); 3) Deposits withdrawals. Source: reuters

China said Tuesday that exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% in U.S. dollar terms. That’s worse than what analysts had expected. A Reuters poll predicted a 12.5% decline in exports in July from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms. Imports were expected to have dropped by 5% during that time, according to the poll. This drop is consistent with weakness just about everywhere in the region. Source: David Ingles, CNBC, Bloomberg

Source: financelot

Indeed, Inward FDI fell further in Q2: The preliminary Q2 Balance of Payments (BOP) data released last week showed China's current account still enjoys a healthy surplus, but the financial account continues to see notable net outflows. In particular, inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell to the lowest level since the series started in 1998. Source: SAFE, www.zerohedge.com

$230bn ($525bn Annualized) of Corporate Debt Matures in the Remainder of 2023 $790bn matures in 2024 $1,070bn matures in 2025 Source: Ayesha Tariq, Goldman Sachs

Source: Bloomberg, Citi

Source: Brian Feroldi