U.S. Treasuries have reached one of the most oversold levels in the last 36 years
This has typically foreshadowed events such as the October 1987 crash, the Dotcom Bubble, and the Nasdaq surge (Oct 2022) Source: Barchart, BofA
According to SWIFT, the U.S. Dollar was used for 46% of all international payment transactions in July, a RECORD high
Meanwhile, use of Euro is collapsing. De-euroization rather than de-dollarization? Source chart: Bloomberg
Chart by Tavi Costa -> Ammonia prices just had the steepest monthly increase on record.
Commodity cycles typically follow a rotational pattern, and these price spikes are not isolated incidents.Oil recently rallied, gasoline prices increased, natural gas started to rise, and now ammonia looks to be initiating its move. This is an inflationary era and an unmistakable one. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
The longest duration bond ETF ($ZROZ) is down over 60% from its peak in 2020 and now has a negative return over the last 10 years. Bond ETF Returns...
Source: Charlie Bilello
BREAKING: Average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rises to 7.93%, its highest since July 2000
Since January 2021, less than 3 years ago, interest rates have gone from 2.65% to 7.93%. This means that homebuyers just 3 years ago would see their interest rate TRIPLE if they decided to move. This is exactly why existing home sales are at their lowest since 2010. The average new home is about to cost LESS than the average existing home for the first time since 2005. You know something is wrong when old costs more than new. Why sell if your mortgage rate triples? From The Kobeissi Letter
The drawdown for the long-term Treasury ETF $TLT is now more extreme that the S&P’s drawdown during the Dot Com Crash:
Source: Bespoke
Self-Improvement
Source: Brian Feroldi
Looking at the September US payroll numbers through another lens
Unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K. All of the unadjusted jobs in September came from the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs (mostly teachers). What if all the mess in Washington (shutdowns, political gridlock in Congress, etc.) and rising cost of debt put a cap on the fiscal support? Where are the jobs going to come from? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
