IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS: TRUMP MADE HISTORY BY WINNING ALL 99 COUNTIES AND WINNING BY THE LARGEST MARGIN EVER.
The Iowa caucus on January 15 launches the long designation process of the Republican and Democrat candidates to the US presidential election. On that day, only Republicans will vote (Democrats will hold their own later in 2024). While Iowa is a small state, and not very representative of the country’s population (90% of Iowa’s population is white and in past elections, the Iowa caucuses have rarely predicted what will happen in other primaries), it is seen as very important for candidates to gather positive momentum for the remaining of the campaign and the following state caucus and primaries. In the current context, the Iowa caucus may already provide a hint on whether any challenger to Trump within the Republican party has the potential to compete with the former President, or not. Rival campaigns and many political pundits had argued that if Trump failed to top 50% of the vote, he wouldn't meet expectations.
Current market mood...
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Google Search $GOOG continues to hold more than 91% share of search engine referrals, followed by Bing $MSFT at 3% and Yahoo at 1.2%.
Source: Beth Kindig
44% of office loans carry outstanding loan balances higher than the property value and are at risk of default according to a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research
Source: Barchart
NEW: US BlackRock updated their home page to showcase their new spot Bitcoin ETF
Source: Bitcoin Magazine
The Dynamic of Rising US Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations 📈
As we move further into the new year, there's a noteworthy trend unfolding in the world of finance - the steady rise of the 10-year US Treasury nominal yield. However, it's not as straightforward as it may seem. While many have been discussing the prospect of strong disinflation, what's actually exerting pressure on higher rates are the increasing long-term US inflation expectations. You can see this clearly in the chart below, which tracks the 10-year US breakeven (BE) rate and the 5-year, 5-year USD inflation swap rate. Both have climbed by more than 10 basis points, while the US real rate remains lower than at the beginning of the year. So, what is the market pricing in? Is it a reflection of the Federal Reserve's successful navigation toward a soft landing for the US economy? Or is it a response to rate-cut expectations, hinting at the resilience of the US economy? The dynamics at play here are fascinating and open up a world of possibilities. As we continue to monitor these developments, it's clear that 2024 holds some intriguing questions for investors. Source: Bloomberg
After an aggressive tightening cycle, 152 centralbanks around the world expect to cut rates in 2024, including the Fed.
Source: Games of Trades
More and more companies are staying private for longer, avoiding IPOs until much later in their growth cycle (if they get there at all).
Source: Markets & Mayhem
