France | Macron’s Approval Drops Two Days Ahead of French Election
President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating fell to the lowest level in three months, delivering a boost to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party just two days before voting starts in France’s legislative election. Support for Macron dropped six points to 36%, the worst showing since March, according to a Toluna-Harris Interactive poll for LCI TV published on Friday. Source: Bloomberg
A 2nd Trump term is a problem for the Euro periphery. US deficits will widen, putting upward pressure on global yields as the US sucks in capital.
That's bad news for high debt Italy and Spain. Both countries had all the time in the world to cut debt. Both countries did nothing. Source: Robin Brooks
Thursday night US presidential election debate in one image
Source: USA today
US yield curve steepens sharply after US presidential debate w/PredictIt’s live betting odds have jumped in Trump’s favor to almost 60%
US 2s/10s spread jumps by 7bps to -36bps. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
CAC 40 Index Rebounds on Major Support
The CAC 40 Index rebounded on the major support zone between 7285-7480 after posting a double bottom. It’s still a bit early to say that the consolidation is over, so keep an eye out for a close above 7725. Source: Bloomberg
Q2 Fixed Income Review Chart: US Treasury Yields Resilient Amid Mixed Economic Signals!
As the second quarter of 2024 unfolded, a noticeable normalization of the US economy became evident, marked by a significant downturn in the US Citi Economic Index from 33 to -29, reaching its lowest level in nearly two years. Despite these economic headwinds, the 10-year US Treasury yields closed the quarter slightly higher at 4.30%, a 10-basis point increase. This apparent contradiction between economic normalization and rising yields can be largely attributed to substantial US Treasury issuances, necessary to fund the expansive US fiscal deficit. Furthermore, persistent inflationary pressures have prompted the central bank to delay the anticipated rate cut from July to November 2024, adjusting expectations amid changing economic conditions. As we approach a typically low-liquidity summer period, any shifts in interest rates could be magnified. Additionally, with the US presidential election on the horizon, market sentiments could be further influenced by electoral outcomes. The looming question is: Which will have a greater impact on third-quarter rates—the slowdown in the US economy, the ongoing inflationary and supply pressures, or the unfolding political landscape? #Finance #Economy #TreasuryYields #EconomicIndicators #Inflation #FiscalPolicy #InterestRates #USPresidentialElection #MarketAnalysis Source: Bloomberg
BREAKING: The odds of President Biden winning the 2024 Democratic nomination are down by 24% in 2 HOURS.
Prior to the debate, markets saw an 86% chance that Biden would win the nomination. Now, there's a 38% chance that he WON'T be nominated as the Democratic candidate. There's a 22% chance that Gavin Newsom wins the nomination and a rising 14% chance of Kamala Harris being the nominee. The one of the largest shifts in market implied odds of all time for an election that is less than 5 months out. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved down to 2.6% in May, in-line with expectations and the lowest since March 2021.
Core PCE inflation fell to 2.6%, in-line with expectations of 2.6%. So Both headline and Core PCE inflation declined last month. Another welcomed sign by the Fed. Note that "Supercore" PCE rose by 0.1% in May, its smallest monthly increase since August 2023. Health Care (light blue) was the dominant contributor, and 5 of the main sub categories actually declined (if it wasn't for soaring health insurance costs, supercore would be negative). The Fed Funds Rate is now 2.7% above Core PCE, the most restrictive monetary policy we've seen since September 2007. Source: Charlie Bilello
