US Poll: Majority believe Biden's cognitive health doesn't qualify him for presidency
A new CBS News/You Gov poll reveals that 72% of Americans doubt Biden's "mental and cognitive health" meets the standards required for the presidency. Of those surveyed, 46% of Democratic voters believe Biden should consider withdrawing from the race due to health concerns. The poll also asked respondents about former President Donald Trump's fitness for office, with 50% expressing confidence in his mental and cognitive abilities, while 49% disagreed. Source: https://www.albawaba.com/
At 5,460, the S&P 500 ended the first half above every 2024 year-end price target from Wall Street strategists
We're 12% higher than average target price of 4,861. $SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
The Le Pen vote
Parliament elections 1st Round- over time: 1988: 9% 1993: 12% 1997: 15% 2002: 11% 2007: 4% 2012: 13% 2017: 13% 2022: 18% 2024: 34% National populism is only getting stronger. Source: Matt Goodwin
A maps of 2024 French legislative election 1st round
next round is 7th of July Source: FT
Euro starts slightly higher to the week following French election in which Marine Le Pen’s far-right party is poised to dominate the first round.
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
FRENCH LOWER HOUSE SNAP ELECTIONS
FIRST TAKE 1) French far-right has strong lead in France's 1st voting round. The National Rally (RN) was projected to get between 33% and 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition was set to get between 28.5% and 29.6% and Macron’s centrist alliance between 21.5% and 22.4%. 2) The exit polls were in line with opinion polls ahead of the election, but provided little clarity on whether the RN will be able to form a government to "cohabit" with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday's run-off. As projections show between 240 to 270 seats won at the second round, the RN could thus get a relative majority in Parliament. Le Pen party needs 289 seats for a majority in the second round French ballot. Bottom-line >>> The National Rally is likely to win the elections. Question is would it be a RELATIVE or ABSOLUTE majority. There are 3 possible outcomes: 1/ Absolute majority (Bardella as Prime Minister) Expect modest OAT-Bund spread widening and another (modest) downside leg for French equities (especially “national victims”) 2/ Minority majority / Hung parliament Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread widening and French equities stabilize 3/ Caretaker or Technical government Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread tightening and French equities rebound (especially “national victims”). The euro is currently STRENGTHENING as Asia trading just started. This means that markets are now expecting a HUNG PARLIAMENT with no Prime Minister coming from Rassemblement National. Even of the party from Mrs Le Pen win the election, they will refuse to appoint Bardella as PM. This opens the door to a Prime Minster coming from the center or a technical one. This means political paralysis but markets can probably live with this...
Good to know...
.
Best selling car brands in European countries, 2023
(map by geo.facts_/instagram) thru OnIMaps on X
