Syz the moment

FIRST TAKE 1) French far-right has strong lead in France's 1st voting round. The National Rally (RN) was projected to get between 33% and 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition was set to get between 28.5% and 29.6% and Macron’s centrist alliance between 21.5% and 22.4%. 2) The exit polls were in line with opinion polls ahead of the election, but provided little clarity on whether the RN will be able to form a government to "cohabit" with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday's run-off. As projections show between 240 to 270 seats won at the second round, the RN could thus get a relative majority in Parliament. Le Pen party needs 289 seats for a majority in the second round French ballot. Bottom-line >>> The National Rally is likely to win the elections. Question is would it be a RELATIVE or ABSOLUTE majority. There are 3 possible outcomes: 1/ Absolute majority (Bardella as Prime Minister) Expect modest OAT-Bund spread widening and another (modest) downside leg for French equities (especially “national victims”) 2/ Minority majority / Hung parliament Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread widening and French equities stabilize 3/ Caretaker or Technical government Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread tightening and French equities rebound (especially “national victims”). The euro is currently STRENGTHENING as Asia trading just started. This means that markets are now expecting a HUNG PARLIAMENT with no Prime Minister coming from Rassemblement National. Even of the party from Mrs Le Pen win the election, they will refuse to appoint Bardella as PM. This opens the door to a Prime Minster coming from the center or a technical one. This means political paralysis but markets can probably live with this...

.

(map by geo.facts_/instagram) thru OnIMaps on X

That's happening because 10-year JGB yield is being kept artificially low by BoJ. Japan has to do that because debt is 250% of GDP, so allowing 10-year JGB yield to rise freely would lead to a debt crisis. Yen weakness is the price Japan has to pay for this. Source: Robin Brooks, Bloomberg

Source: David | Filled With Money

Let's see the best 10 and worst 10 performers in the S&P 500 so far: The Best 10: 1. $SMCI - Supermicro - 188.2% 2. $NVDA - Nvidia - 149.5% 3. $VST - Vistra - 123.2% 4. $CEG - Constellation Energy - 71.3% 5. $LLY - Eli Lilly - 55.3% 6. $MU - Micron - 54.1% 7. $NRG - NRG Energy - 50.6% 8. $CRWD - Crowdstrike - 50.1% 9. $ANET - Arista Networks - 48.8% 10. $TRGP - Targa Resources - 48.2% The Worst 10: 1. $WBA - Walgreens Boots -53.7% 2. $LULU - Lululemon -41.6% 3. $INTC - Intel -38.4% 4. $EPAM - Epam Systems -36.7% 5. $WBD - Warner Bros Discovery -34.6% 6. $ALB - Albemarle -33.9% 7. $GL - Globe Life -32.4% 8. $MKTX - Marketaxess -31.5% 9. $PAYC - Paycom -30.8% 10. $NKE - Nike -30.6% Source: The Future Investors

Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

.