Syz the moment

U.S. firms scaled back hiring in November. Adding only 103k private payrolls compared 130k expected, according to ADP. Job cuts were seen in manufacturing, construction, and leisure/hospitality sectors. ADP’s report is based on payroll data covering +25 million US private-sector employees. Source: Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Bloomberg

GPU Shipments

Since the September 28th high, oil prices are now down ~27%. Meanwhile, the national average gas price is down for 10-straight weeks to $3.25/gallon. Even as OPEC+ agreed to additional supply cuts last week, oil markets are selling off. A welcomed development for global liquidity, for inflation and for the Fed. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Amidst the impressive year-end rally in the global fixed-income market, a significant development last night casts a shadow over this upward momentum. The yield on the Japanese 10-year bond surged by 12 basis points, driven by comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, instigating a belief that change might unfold sooner than anticipated. The probability of the BOJ ending its negative rates policy this month skyrocketed to nearly 45%, as Himino's speech was perceived as relatively hawkish, amplifying the significance of the BOJ's December meeting to a live event. Adding to the market tension, the Japan 30-Year Bond Sale recorded its lowest bid-cover since 2015. Notably, the sharp steepening of the Japanese curve, from 20 bps in March to 80 bps at the end of October, coincided with a significant increase in US Treasury yields over the same period... Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

Source: European leadership

A 155k SF office building in Chicago just sold for $17 million, or $109 per SF The seller took a huge 61% loss, paying $44 million for the building in 2017 Here's a worrying snippet from Crain's: "Thanks to remote work and higher interest rates, real estate investors can buy downtown office buildings on the cheap these days. Add a motivated seller trying to unload all of its office stock and the discount gets even steeper. Many office properties in the heart of the [Chicago] are now worth less than the mortgages tied to them, fueling a historic wave of distress." It will be interesting to see how bad the US commercial real estate meltdown gets (particularly in office) but it's certainly a story to keep an eye on in 2024 as big opportunities emerge". Source: TripleNetInvest

Volkswagen has consolidated more than 60% over the last 30 months !!! End of October it rebounded on 2015 major support zone. It's now trying to breakout March 2021 downtrend. Keep an eye. Source : Bloomberg