The Total US Bond Market ETF now has a negative return over the last 7 years. $BND
Source: Charlie Bilello
US HY: watch out for take-off!
The disparity between cash and synthetic in High Yield (HY) has recently hit levels not witnessed since October 2022. While HY credit spreads in the cash bond market appear more resilient in response to the rapid increase in real rates, the CDX HY index, comprised of 5-year CDS of HY companies, has expanded by over 60 bps in just two weeks. The question now is, how long will this disconnect between the two markets persist? Source: Bloomberg #HighYield #CreditMarkets #Finance #Investing
Bitcoin breakout ?
Bitcoin (XBTUSD) is trying to breakout July downtrend resistance. Keep an eye at these levels. Source : Bloomberg
As highlighted in a tweet by HolgerZ, the S&P 500 is running in tandem with the Fed net liquidity
So it's not so much the peak or pause in rate hikes that matters, but rather what happens to the Fed balance sheet & reverse repo operations. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Cash now earns more than the S&P 500 by the largest margin in 23 years
Source: TME, Bloomberg
HAVE YOU EVER HEARD ABOUT DE-EUROIZATION ?
Based on SWIFT international payments, we are witnessing 'de-euroization' and not 'dedollarization. The euro's share in SWIFT global payments has dropped to 23% from 38% at the start of the year. Are Russia's SPFS and China's CIPS eating up the euro? Meanwhile, China's share in SWIFT payments reached an all-time high of 3.47% in August. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Consumer balance sheets are getting stretched
Accumulating debt during a low interest rates environment is one thing. But in light of the continuous surge of the price of money, the US consumer is probably starting to feel the pain Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge...
Does it mean that the market sees higher oil prices as a "growth killer" and thus disinflationary at some stage? Source chart: TME, Refinitiv
