As highlighted by Tavi Costa:
Despite quantitative tightening in most developed economies, their money supply continues to grow substantially, undermining their policies in a significant way. "Today's ECB decision to cut rates highlights how central banks are trapped and forced to reinstate financial repression even as inflation remains higher than historical norms. These policies act as a relief valve to alleviate financial stress, leading to a surge in prices of hard assets with limited supply". Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
🚨: S&P 500 $SPY finished with its lowest volume in 18 years (excluding holiday-shortened trading days)
Source: Barchart
What US stock market concentration? Exhibit below
courtesy of Morgan Stanley and Factset - shows the market concentration at the end of 2023 for a dozen of the largest markets around the world. The U.S. is the fourth MOST DIVERSIFIED market notwithstanding the recent increase in concentration...
Nvidia's relative volume is getting crazier, yesterday's its traded about as much as the rest of the Top 20 list combined.
Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
Here’s how many times the word “AI” has been said on the earnings calls of some of the biggest companies in the world
Source: Evan, Uptrends
On June 6, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2024 is 2.6%
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators
BREAKING: SPOT GOLD PRICE TUMBLED BY $20 PER OUNCE AS CHINA'S PBOC STOPPED GOLD RESERVES BUILDING.
China's end-May forex reserves are $3.2320 trillion, higher than the previous $3.2008tln. Gold reserves were unchanged at 72.80 million ounces, and the value of gold reserves was $170.9bln vs the previous $167.9 bln as gold price increased in May. Source: CN Wire
US employment data are out - here we go again with jobs numbers that don't add up...
here we go again with jobs numbers that don't add up... The Establishment survey by BLS reports 272k new jobs for May, smashing estimates (+185K consensus) and much strong than April (+165K). The labor market continues to show signs of resiliency in the face of higher Fed interest rates. This seems to decrease the odds that the hashtag#Fed could cut rates in September... BUT: - Labor force shrank: This is why the US unemployment rate has risen from 3.9% to 4% (first month with 4.0%+ unemployment since February 2022) despite a lower labor participation rate (Indeed, the labor supply as week, and as Unemployment Rate = Number of unemployed / labor force, a weak labor force implies higher unemployment rate despite rise in job creation). - Wage growth surprised to the upside: this could be linked to a reduction in the supply of labor which might be causing some bottlenecks given the still-robust job creation. Wage growth continues to remain a sticky source of inflation, rising at a 4.1% pace, which is still way too hot for the Fed. - The Household survey shows a large drop in the number of employed, down 408k jobs (see white bar below). - Full time jobs actually SHRUNK by 625k (This is the biggest drop in full-time employment since December 2023) while part time jobs rose by 286k. - Between the household and establishment surveys, the numbers are retarded and unusable. This makes economic data analysis very difficult. Bottom-line: Key Takeaway: All things considered, the May jobs report does not point to imminent Fed rate cuts. The pickup in jobs growth supports the case that the resilient labor market remains strong, and the economy continues to hold up better than expected. Source: Bloomberg
