Under the surface, stocks continue to improve.
We keep hearing the opposite from Mr. Hindenburg, but fortunately we have the data to show what is really happening. Number of stocks above their 20-, 50-, and 200-day MAs are all moving higher the past week. Source: Ryan Detrick
Only 26% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the $SPX over the last 3 months, one of the worst market breadth readings since 2020
Source: Goldman
Buybacks are back...
"Goldman estimates over $6B worth of stock buyback vwap demand for each November trading day" Source: zerohedge
US corporate earnings growth is booming:
S&P 500 quarterly earnings growth is up to +18% YoY in Q3 2025, the highest since Q3 2021. Excluding the post-pandemic recovery, this marks the strongest growth since 2018. This comes as 6 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors reported positive average EPS growth in Q3, a material improvement from just 2 sectors in Q2. Additionally, median profit growth in the Russell 3000 index hit +11% YoY, the highest since Q3 2021 and up from +6% in Q2. Overall, the frequency of earnings beats is now among the highest on record. Earnings momentum is incredibly strong. Source: FT, Global Markets Investor
*SOFTBANK SHARES FELL AS MUCH AS 10% (before recovering somewhat to close at -3.5%)
Maybe liquidating NVDA to invest in its biggest cash-incinerating client wasn't the best idea... Source. zerohedge
Michael Burry has said that Oracle, $ORCL, and Meta, $META, could overstate earnings by 26.9% and 20.8%.
He adds: "It gets worse." Source: unusual_whales @unusual_whales
🚨 TSMC’s Growth Just Slowed — and the Entire AI Supply Chain Is Watching
Bloomberg reports TSMC’s October sales rose 16.9% — still strong, but slower than the recent surge. Why it matters: TSMC sits at the choke point of advanced chips. When it slows, the ripple hits GPUs, memory, packaging, the whole AI stack. 📉 A slowdown in monthly sales doesn’t always mean weak demand. It can be: - Order timing (customers shifting deliveries) - Yield ramps (new node transitions) - Inventory digestion (buyers catching up) But zoom out… 💰 Cloud giants plan to spend >$400B on AI infrastructure next year — a 21% jump. That money flows straight into NVIDIA GPUs, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, and TSMC’s cutting-edge wafers. 🗣️ NVIDIA’s CEO says demand is “getting stronger month by month” and even met with TSMC’s CEO to ask for more capacity. Translation: supply, not demand, is still the bottleneck. TSMC also builds for AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple — so who gets priority at the fab affects entire product launches. 🎯 The company says capacity is “very tight,” and chip designers are literally chasing slots in Hsinchu. Source: Bloomberg, Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai
$AMD is the second best performing position over the last 10 Years in the S&P 500
Source: Charlie Bilello
