The correlation between equity market volatility and inflation expectations is at the highest level we've seen in decades.
Although the chart below doesn't extend as far back, a similar phenomenon occurred in 1973-1974 as markets faced difficulties whenever inflation reaccelerated. This is especially pertinent now, with energy prices, agricultural commodities, precious metals, copper, global freight costs, and other inflation indicators showing significant resurgence. Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
Dow is only down 190pts so far this weekend.
Doesn’t seem too bad yet. We’ll see what futures say tomorrow morning. https://lnkd.in/eD7nnP5k
Healthy gains heading into May have historically been a good signal of a positive year for stocks.
Since 1982, when the stock market was higher on the year heading into May, it went on to post a full-year gain roughly 90% of the time. In that period, 1987, 2011 and 2015 were the only years in which the market was higher from January to April but finished the year lower.1 There were nine years in which the year-to-date increase heading into May was in the 6.5%–9.5% range, comparable to 2024’s 8% year-to-date gain. In those instances, the stock market went on to post an average full-year increase of 13%. Source: Edward Jones
Yes, this week was painful for stocks.
But putting things into perspective, equities have been more resilient to higher rates recently versus previous periods of rising rates. Source: Edward Jones
Commodities are currently undervalued vs. equities
Source: Vontobel
Equity market positioning is VERY extended (which is bad from a contrarian perspective).
As shown in the chart below, Asset Managers have built the largest equity futures position in history 🚨🚨🚨 Source: Barchart, Goldman Sachs, CFTC
Goldman is embracing the rotational trade as well:
"Sell your Tech Stocks and invest elsewhere" says Goldman Sachs
Yesterday was very painful for diversified 60-40 (equities / bonds) portfolios
Source: Bloomberg
