History shows an average 25% increase in volatility from July-Nov of election years...
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, BofA
What would a far-right or left-wing government mean for France’s economy?
Source: FT
s de-dollarisation (or at least attempts of de-dollarisation) accelerating?
=> Saudi Arabia ditches US dollar and will NOT renew the 50 year 'petro-dollar' agreement with the United States. Saudi Arabia will now sell oil in multiple currencies, including the Chinese RMB, Euros, Yen, and Yuan, instead of exclusively in US dollars. => Russia's Moscow Stock Exchange suspends all trading in $USD & $EUR => El Salvador securities market launching on liquid with trading pairs in Bitcoin Source: radar, Global Times
FRENCH POLITICS >>>
With 20 days to go to the lower house snap elections, a poll credits Marine Le Pen RN with 34% of the vote, far ahead of the left & far-left coalition and the Macron camp. One election can hide another. No sooner have the results of the European elections been announced than all eyes have turned to the early legislative elections. With 20 days to go to the first round, a Toluna Harris Interactive poll for Challenges, M6 and RTL puts the Rassemblement National (RN) well ahead. If the legislative elections had been held today, the Rassemblement National would have won 34% of the vote. A clear improvement on the 18.7% recorded in 2022. Long under-represented in the Assembly, the RN would be the leading force in the lower house. However, as the legislative elections will be held in 577 constituencies over two rounds, it is very difficult to project a precise number of seats. For the time being, it's impossible to know whether the Marinist troops will win an absolute or even a relative majority. Nevertheless, they seem to be well positioned to win the election, especially if they can create a coalition with other right-wing parties and traditional right. A win by RN could lead to a cohabitation with Jordan Bardella (RN) as Prime Minister. Source: Le Figaro
The traffic light coalition in Germany suffers a historic rout in the European elections.
German Chancellor Scholz’s SPD crashed to 14%, their worst-ever result, falling to 3rd place behind the far-right AfD, exit polls show. The other 2 parties in Scholz’s ruling alliance – the Greens and the FDP – got 12% and 5% respectively. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
FRANCE | *MACRON'S GROUP THRASHED BY FAR-RIGHT LE PEN'S PARTY IN EU VOTE - BBG
*MACRON GROUP HAS 15%-16%, LE PEN'S HAS 32%-33%: POLLSTERS Source: Bloomberg, Le Figaro, C.Barraud
EU Parliamentary elections in France.
In brown where Far-right Le Pen party has won yesterday. Source: Xavier Ruiz
The US could be on the brink of the civil war according to Ray Dalio
In an interview given to the FT on 16 May, billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates warns about the risk of a civil war breaking in the US. Source: FT
