China controls close to 90% of the global rare earth market, and it has a track record of weaponizing exports when tensions rise.
Any new tariffs could invite retaliation, slower licensing, outright restrictions, or targeted disruptions that hit automakers, electronics, and magnet producers with higher costs and production delays. The ripple effects wouldn’t stop there, more expensive inputs could feed inflation and strain global supply chains. The G7 and the EU are weighing new ways to chip away at China’s rare earths dominance. Tariffs or taxes on Chinese exports are on the table along with price floors and subsidies to jump start mining and processing capacity outside Beijing’s reach. Source: StockMarket.news
US government shutdown by October 1
Source: Polymarket
Tariffs, Courts & Treasuries
A U.S. federal appeals court has ruled that the Trump administration misused emergency powers to impose tariffs that have been bringing in roughly $30 billion per month. If upheld, the decision could force Washington to repay importers and remove the steepest trade taxes in a century. The case is now on an expedited track to the Supreme Court, with a key October 14 deadline looming. What’s at stake? - Congress relied on these tariff revenues to help offset this year’s tax cuts. A rollback could leave a deeper fiscal hole, unsettling Treasury buyers. - Importers say nothing changes until the court outcome, but market uncertainty is rising. - Steel and aluminum duties (1962 Act) and other tariffs (1974 Trade Act) are not affected — the dispute centers on the 1977 emergency powers. Trade policy and fiscal stability are deeply intertwined.
BREAKING: Trump tells Xi Jinping to 'please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.'
Source: The Spectator Index @spectatorindex on X
⚠️ Way more more money is flowing out of Canada than coming in
Canada’s current account deficit reached C$21.16 billion in Q2 2025, AN ALL-TIME HIGH. Additionally, trade deficit in goods widened to a record C$19.6 BILLION. US tariffs seem to be hurting Canada's economy. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
Tariffs are forcing countries to make new partnerships
Do you remember the proverb? "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" Source: @krassenstein on X
Apollo: "Yes tariffs are inflationary - so too is a US dollar depreciation - that results in a coming inflation mountain"
See chart below inflation 2021 cycle relative to 1970s. Source: Apollo, Samantha LaDuc on X
Despite ballooning debt, scare of Fed independence, tariffs, etc. the market's perception of USA sovereign risk is back at pre-Trump lows.
Source: zerohedge
