Tax Revenue vs. GDP for Major Countries
Source: Visual Capitalist
A very important chart which goes AGAINST hard landing scenario
"The source of the rise in the us unemployment rate is not job cuts but a rise in labor supply because of rising immigration. That is the reason why the Sahm rule doesn’t work. The Sahm rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration." - Torsten Slok (Apollo) Source: Mike Z. on X
Deutsche Bank: "Why the BOJ has no choice and is merely prolonging the inevitable*
"at a gross balance sheet value of around 500% GDP or $20 trillion, the Japanese government's balance sheet is, simply put, one giant carry trade."
The recessionary trade was in full effect yesterday following weak ISM data.
Cyclicals underperformed Defensives by 429bps, one of the worst days in the last 16+ years. The only other comparable days were during the March 2020 Covid crash and 2008 GFC. $SPY $QQQ $IWM Source: David Marlin, Bloomberg
BREAKING: US job openings declined to 8.18 million in June, down from 8.23 million in May, near their lowest level since 2021.
Year-over-year, job openings fell 10.3%, marking the 23rd consecutive monthly decrease, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The ratio of vacancies per unemployed worker, a metric the Fed follows closely, fell to 1.20, the lowest since June 2021. At the same time, the private sector hiring rate declined to 3.7%, the lowest level since April 2020. The private quits rate, measuring the number of people who voluntarily leave their jobs, fell to 2.3%, the lowest since August 2020. This means that Americans are the least confident that they will find a new job since the 2020 Pandemic. => The US labor market is weakening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
ISM PMI Employment came in at 43.4.
Only time lower: 1) the internet bubble popping. 2) the GFC. 3) Covid-19. Source: James E. Thorne, Bloomberg
Delinquency rates on Office building loans hit 8.11%, the highest in more than a decade 🚨
Source: Barchart
Total US Federal debt has officially hit $35 trillion for the first time in history.
Since 2020, the US has now added ~$12 TRILLION in Federal debt. In other words, the US has added an average of ~$280 BILLION of Federal debt EVERY MONTH since January 2020. This means that the US now has ~$105,000 in Federal debt for every person living in the country. All while deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at World War 2 levels. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
