Artificial Intelligence is projected to increase the GDP by 130% according to Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management
This is significantly higher than all major advances in technology including the Steam Engine and the Internet. Source: Barchart, Ark Invest
Maturity Wall
Roughly $930 billion in commercial mortgage loans are scheduled to mature in 2024. source : tme
Germany economic challenges in one chart
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn.
55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by US, France, & Germany. BUT global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, acc to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop. Source: HolgerZ, IIF
Germany’s manufacturing downturn unexpectedly deepens amid falling demand at home and abroad.
S&P Global’s PMI for the country’s industrial sector dropped to 42.3 from 45.5 the previous month – well below any economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The picture was brighter in France, where the contraction eased much more than analysts had predicted. Companies reported improving demand while expanding their workforce. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Below is the BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator.
It just exceeded its April 2021 extreme, showing the LEAST amount of financial stress since the Pandemic (February 2020).
US markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down - Bloomberg
Investors are beginning to war-game how the Federal Reserve can manage a us economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest-rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain. Bets on lower rates coming soon were so prevalent a few weeks ago that Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly cautioned that policymakers were unlikely to be in position to cut as of March. Less than three weeks later, traders have not only removed March as a possibility but May also looks improbable, and even conviction about the June Fed meeting is wavering, swaps trading shows.
There's two hotbeds for re-export of western goods to Russia in Central Asia and the Caucasus: Armenia (top left) and Georgia (bottom left).
Armenia stands out for massive direct exports to Russia (black), Georgia for a huge surge in exports to Russia's satellite economies blue). Source: Robin Brooks
