Yesterday's hot CPI prints shows that headline inflation is sticky around the 3% level.
Source: Lyn Alden, FRED
Inflation-adjusted US government spending since 2020 exceeds the combined spending of:
- World War I - World War II - 1970 to 1990 Source: Game of Trades
France's 2023 Deficit 'Significantly' Above 4.9%' (BBG)
France's budget (in)discipline... Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, France managed to keep its budget deficit below the 3% threshold (remember the Maastricht Treaty) just once (2018). This is far worse than Italy. France's debt-to-GDP ratio is at 110%, up from 64% pre-financial crisis. With potential GDP growth at a paltry 1% and declining, structurally low interest rates is needed to keep the debt burden afloat. Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
The interest payments on US Federal Government Debt have surpassed a $1 trillion annual rate, increasing 98% over the past 3 years
Source: Charlie Bilello
Eurozone CPI slowed less than anticipated in Feb, highlighting stickiness in inflation
Headline inflation eased to 2.6% YoY in Feb, above 2.5% consensus estimate in BBG survey. Core inflation came down by 0.2%-pt to 3.1%, also an upward surprise compared to 2.9% consensus estimate. Source: Bloomberg
Today's report unveiled the largest positive surprise in US personal income since the surge in consumer prices began in 2021
Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
When you invest in US debt, think twice...
In Q4 2023, nominal GDP grew by 3.2% according to data on Wednesday. This would mean a $334.5 billion increase in nominal GDP. Meanwhile, over the same time period the US added $834.2 billion of debt. In other words, it cost us $2.50 of debt for every $1.00 of GDP last quarter, according to Zerohedge. As Fed Chair Powell recently said, "we are on an unsustainable fiscal path." What's the long term plan here? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
Artificial Intelligence is projected to increase the GDP by 130% according to Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management
This is significantly higher than all major advances in technology including the Steam Engine and the Internet. Source: Barchart, Ark Invest
