Straight from the Desk
Syz the moment
Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.
- All
- us
- equities
- Food for Thoughts
- macro
- Bonds
- Central banks
- Asia
- sp500
- technical analysis
- investing
- bitcoin
- markets
- inflation
- interest-rates
- europe
- Crypto
- Commodities
- ETF
- AI
- nvidia
- tech
- Forex
- earnings
- gold
- performance
- Real Estate
- oil
- bank
- geopolitics
- apple
- nasdaq
- Alternatives
- Volatility
- energy
- magnificent-7
- switzerland
- sentiment
- emerging-markets
- trading
- ESG
- Money Market
- tesla
- Middle East
- UK
- assetmanagement
- bankruptcy
- meta
- russia
- Turkey
- France
- amazon
- ethereum
- microsoft
- Industrial-production
- africa
- Healthcare
- Market Outlook
- brics
BREAKING: Interest rate futures are now pricing in just 2 interest rate cuts for the entire 2024.
This is the first time that markets are pricing-in LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance. Just 4 months ago, markets saw 6-8 rate cuts in 2024 with cuts beginning in March. Odds of a rate cut in June are down from ~60% before the CPI report to ~22% now. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
The 60/40 portfolio doesn't fit all macro regimes by Alfonso Peccatiello / The macro compass
The 60/40 portfolio (60% equities / 40% bonds) did work great for 3 of the last 4 decades, and that's because the macro regime was one of predictably low growth and inflation, and Central Banks ready to support markets and economies. But are you sure the next 10 years be the same as the last 10 years?
The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025.
Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days. To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025 that would be a $17 TRILLION increase since 2020. That would be a ~570% jump in US Federal debt since 2000, a 25-year period. The worst part? This analysis assumes that we are on track for a "soft landing." What happens if a recession hits? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
It's the liquidity, stupid! Yellen's stealth QE overpowering Powell's QT.
This probably helps risk assets performing well despite high interest rates and qt (Chart via SRP thru HolgerZ)
Investing with intelligence
Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks