On January 10, the GDPNow model nowcast of us real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 2.2%
Source: Atlanta Fed
Beware the second wave...inflation moves in mysterious ways and sometimes you get that "unplanned" second wave.
Source: TS Lombard, TME
While G7 claims can offer short-term tactical opportunities, soaring G7 debt levels at the the of high yields mean that the long-term risk-reward remains unattractive.
Source chart: Bloomberg
Mapped: The Top Middle East Exports by Country
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US defense spending vs interest on Federal debt
Source: www.zerohedge.com
You can measure the concrete effects of inflation on your purchasing power over time by using this CPI Inflation calculator
https://lnkd.in/eFFzyTpu (This applies to the US only)
BREAKING: The US job market remains strong
In December, the US economy added 216,000 jobs, above expectations of 170,000. This means that the US economy has now added jobs for 36 consecutive months. The US Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7% in December (consensus estimate was for an increase to 3.8%). Wages actually increased to 4.1% year over year from 4% in November. The market reaction is as you'd expect - yields higher, with fewer rate cuts being priced in for 2024. In light of these numbers, there is a problem with the number of FED rate cuts being priced in. Source: Bloomberg
German inflation has accelerated again, at least the headline rate
CPI rose to 3.7% in December from 3.2% in November due to base effect. But Core CPI has fallen further to 3.5% in Dec from 3.8% in November. This means that core inflation is once again below headline inflation. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
