Shocking stat of the day by The Kobeissi Letter:
US net interest payments as a percentage of federal revenues are set to reach 34% by 2054. This means that ONE THIRD of all government revenue would be spent only to service the national debt. Over the past 8 years, the percentage has already doubled to ~15% and is at its highest in 3 decades. Meanwhile, nominal annualized interest payments have crossed above $1 trillion for the first time ever. We could see $1.6 trillion in annual interest expense by the end of the year if the Fed leaves rates steady. The US government needs lower interest rates more than anyone - i.e Fiscal policy leads monetary policy. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Peter G.Peterson
Global debt rose by $1.3tn to a new ATH of $315tn in Q1 2024.
Moreover, after 3 consecutive quarters of decline, global debt-to-GDP resumed its upward trajectory in Q1 2024. Emerging market debt topped $105tn in Q1 2024, w/largest increases coming from China, India, Mexico. Source: HolgerZ, IIF
The US consumer (risk) in one chart: credit card debt at record high, personal savings rate record low
Source: www.zerohedge.com
ISM US manufacturing and services employment has simultaneously contracted for 3 consecutive months.
Over the last 20 years, this has happened ONLY twice, during the 2020 pandemic and 2008 Financial Crisis. More than 800 companies from manufacturing and services sectors claim that employment is falling. Meanwhile, according to US jobs data, the US job market has never been stronger. Are we going to see meaningful deterioration in jobs data in the coming months? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Stagflation fears are back.
Source: BofA Global Research; Mike Zaccardi
US Stock Market Capitalization as % of GDP...
1984: 42% 1994: 63% 2004: 93% 2014: 114% 2024: 187% Source: Charlie Bilello
Hong Kong growth beat estimates by the most in 13 years in the first quarter.
Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
US job openings dropped in March to the lowest level in 3 years.
US available vacancies declined to 8.49 million from 8.81 million in February, hitting the lowest level since March 2021. Job openings have been declining for the past 2 years since the March 2022 peak of 12 million vacancies. Meanwhile, the quits rate has fallen to 2.1%, the lowest since August 2020. This suggests that many currently employed individuals are either losing confidence and/or are more dependent on their jobs. All eyes are on Friday's jobs report. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
