In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn.
55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by US, France, & Germany. BUT global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, acc to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop. Source: HolgerZ, IIF
Germany’s manufacturing downturn unexpectedly deepens amid falling demand at home and abroad.
S&P Global’s PMI for the country’s industrial sector dropped to 42.3 from 45.5 the previous month – well below any economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The picture was brighter in France, where the contraction eased much more than analysts had predicted. Companies reported improving demand while expanding their workforce. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Below is the BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator.
It just exceeded its April 2021 extreme, showing the LEAST amount of financial stress since the Pandemic (February 2020).
US markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down - Bloomberg
Investors are beginning to war-game how the Federal Reserve can manage a us economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest-rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain. Bets on lower rates coming soon were so prevalent a few weeks ago that Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly cautioned that policymakers were unlikely to be in position to cut as of March. Less than three weeks later, traders have not only removed March as a possibility but May also looks improbable, and even conviction about the June Fed meeting is wavering, swaps trading shows.
There's two hotbeds for re-export of western goods to Russia in Central Asia and the Caucasus: Armenia (top left) and Georgia (bottom left).
Armenia stands out for massive direct exports to Russia (black), Georgia for a huge surge in exports to Russia's satellite economies blue). Source: Robin Brooks
Will we soon see some relief on US wage inflation?
The US just experienced the largest population increase in a year ever. Mostly driven by the surge in immigration. Source: Tavi Costa
In just 5 years, the us dollar has plummeted by a staggering 92% when measured against Bitcoin...
Source: Loïc Staub
Japan enters recession with Nikkei about to hit All Time High as the yen trades at 150
The Nikkei has more than doubled from the covid lows and is about to breach its all time bubble highs set in in the last days of 1989... and moments ago Japan entered a recession. In fact, From its generational low set a decade ago, the Nikkei has almost quadrupled even as Japan's economy has slumped into recession three times! Once the second largest economy in the world, Japan reported two consecutive quarters of contraction on Thursday — falling 0.4% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter after a revised 3.3% contraction in the third quarter. Fourth quarter GDP sharply missed forecasts for a 1.4% growth in a Reuters poll of economists. Source: CNBC, www.zerohedge.com
