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18 Sep 2024

Soft landing? Hard landing? Or no landing?

Atlanta Fed Q3 Real GDP growth Nowcast model just hit 3%...

18 Sep 2024

Safe is risky. #DF24

Source: Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar on X, marketoonist.com

17 Sep 2024

The US yield curve continues to steepen.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries are the highest vs 2-year yields going back to 2022. Source: Lisa Abramowitz, Bloomberg

17 Sep 2024

BREAKING: Prediction markets are now pricing-in a 48% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut this week.

Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut have gone from 2% to 48% in just 5 days, according to Kalshi. This will be the first Fed policy decision without a 90%+ consensus since 2020... Source: The Kobeissi Letter

16 Sep 2024

FED WILL CUT RATES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE 1ST TIME IN 4.5 YEARS Stocks usually fall ~15% within 12 months following the 1st cut if there is a recession

If no recession, stocks rise by >10%. Key caveat is, that we will know if there was a recession a few months after the cut. Source: Global Markets Investor

16 Sep 2024

Market pricing now suggests a 50bps cut from the Fed is now base case (nearly 70% probability)

Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles

16 Sep 2024

BREAKING: The Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell -1.3% in July to 97.7 points, the lowest level since the 2020 lockdowns

This index tracks the health of the restaurant industry in the US by measuring sales, customer traffic, labor, and overall business conditions. Since 2021, this metric has fallen by ~8.0%, marking the largest drop since it was launched in 2002. Such a low level in the index has only been seen during recessions. Americans are pulling back on dining out as prices have been sharply rising and recently hit new all-time highs. Since 2020, food prices away from home have increased by 27.0%, and fast food prices have jumped by 31.0%. Eating out is becoming a luxury... Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Trahan Macro Research

13 Sep 2024

US fiscal stimulus: no surprise, we haven't seen any slowdwn in terms of spending ahead of the elections...

Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com

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