Another wave of early retirements is hitting as the stock market surges
This complicates the Fed's goals for the labor market to some degree, as it means there are more exiting the workforce. There's already 1.45 jobs available for every unemployed person seeking work. Source: Bloomberg, Markets & Mayhem
Americans now have a combined $1.13 Trillion of credit card debt, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
source : cnbc
New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit Report
Total household debt climbed by $212 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve said in its latest quarterly Household Debt and Credit Report. Amid the rise in debt, delinquency rates and the transition into troubled status were both higher. source : cnbc
India vs. China
Source: Michel A.Arouet
That’s an amazing trend. What is driving it?
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Germany's exports to Kyrgyzstan were up 1200% in 2023 vs before Russia invaded Ukraine...
Source: Robin Brooks
A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year.
Meanwhile, the government deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.4 trillion. This means that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024. That's nearly ONE THIRD of all outstanding US federal debt right now. All while the Fed is expected to start cutting rates, making buying these bonds less attractive. Who's going to fund all of this debt? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Apollo
Do you remember the dramatic loosing of Financial conditions at the end of 2023?
The lagged effect of this massive loosening is now hitting and is supporting the US economy (and this NOT doing The Fed's job...). Indeed, US economic surprises keep surprising on the upside. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent (!!!) on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26
