A very interesting chart highlighted by Tavi Costa
This is the largest number of workers on strike in the history of the data. As corporate profit margins remain comfortably above their typical averages, it leaves room to absorb increased labor costs. This could contribute significantly to inflation. Source: Tavi Costa
Morgan Stanley industrial team runs through their conclusions coming out of a choppy earnings season
A double-digit short-cycle slowdown is getting priced in, but ongoing inventory and incremental capex pressures are not. Source: MS, TME
Mortgage demand is now down 50% from pre-pandemic levels and at its lowest level since 1994
From its peak in 2021, mortgage demand is down ~64%. Current mortgage demand is ~75% below the 2005 peak. The most incredible part of this? Mortgage rates are still only at their historical average. Housing market activity is coming to a halt. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for an increase of 170,000. The United Auto Workers strikes were primarily responsible for the gap as the impasse meant a net loss of jobs for the manufacturing industry. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Employment as measured in the household survey, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 348,000 workers, while the rolls of the unemployed rose by 146,000. A more encompassing jobless rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point. Meanwhile, Household Survey showed a huge 348k loss in jobs during October. Dollar drops, Bond yields slide following VERY disappointing US jobs data which fuel bets Fed is done Source: CNBC, Bloomberg
Belgium and Netherlands are now in deflation
Source: SocGen, TME
EUROZONE DEBT & GDP
Source: WinfieldSmart, The Daily Shot
It took 20 years for US interest payments to reach 4.5% of GDP in the 1970s and 80s
Today, achieving the same level will take less than 3 years. This starkly highlights the speed of the rise in Treasury yields and the magnitude of the debt problem. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
And we're back to Bidenomics trendline
Source: www.zerohedge.com
