German business outlook is improving, feeding rebound hopes
Ifo expectations index rose to 84.7 in Oct, up from 83.1 in Sep and way better than BBG consensus of 83.5. "What we see here does suggest that we see a certain stabilization,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest told BBG. “The German economy will be shrinking this year, but for the final quarter we do expect a stabilization, slight growth.” Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The Kobeissi Letter >>> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion
If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here?
Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US:
- US Government Debt to GDP = 98th percentile - SP500 Cyclically-adjusted-PE ratio = 99th percentile - US Consumer Price Index YoY change = 88th percentile Sounds like an interesting trifecta... Source: Crescat Capital
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now
German PPI deflation deepened with PPI down 14.7% YoY, the most since the start of the statistic in 1949. Even compared to the previous month, producer prices fell by 0.2%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Italy budget deficit by Robin Brooks ->
Monthly data on Italy's fiscal balance are volatile, but the September 2023 budget deficit is the largest ever...
🌍Worldwide, many other countries have debt that is more than their GDP
Japan consistently ranks among the top nations with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%. Source: Genuine Impact
To whom the US owes money? Mostly to themselves actually...
Source: The King's Cheque En Qua
Total US debt is now up ~$650 BILLION since it crossed $33 trillion exactly 1 month ago, according to Zerohedge
Yesterday alone, total US debt jumped by another $58 billion. Total US debt has grown by ~$22 billion PER DAY for the last month. In other words, the US has added ~$915 million in debt every hour for the last month. Since the debt ceiling "crisis" ended, total US debt is up over $2 trillion. Since 2020, total US debt is officially up more than $10 TRILLION. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
