The Kobeissi Letter >>> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion
If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here?
Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US:
- US Government Debt to GDP = 98th percentile - SP500 Cyclically-adjusted-PE ratio = 99th percentile - US Consumer Price Index YoY change = 88th percentile Sounds like an interesting trifecta... Source: Crescat Capital
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now
German PPI deflation deepened with PPI down 14.7% YoY, the most since the start of the statistic in 1949. Even compared to the previous month, producer prices fell by 0.2%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Italy budget deficit by Robin Brooks ->
Monthly data on Italy's fiscal balance are volatile, but the September 2023 budget deficit is the largest ever...
🌍Worldwide, many other countries have debt that is more than their GDP
Japan consistently ranks among the top nations with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%. Source: Genuine Impact
To whom the US owes money? Mostly to themselves actually...
Source: The King's Cheque En Qua
Total US debt is now up ~$650 BILLION since it crossed $33 trillion exactly 1 month ago, according to Zerohedge
Yesterday alone, total US debt jumped by another $58 billion. Total US debt has grown by ~$22 billion PER DAY for the last month. In other words, the US has added ~$915 million in debt every hour for the last month. Since the debt ceiling "crisis" ended, total US debt is up over $2 trillion. Since 2020, total US debt is officially up more than $10 TRILLION. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The US government has consistently shown fiscal irresponsibility
Debt-to-GDP is projected to reach 200% by 2050. The government is going to face a major problem with the amount of money they will have to pay in interest. Everybody, except the US government, seems to understand the unsustainability of this path. Source: Game of Trades
