Recession and stagflation don't happen often in the grand scheme of things... 90% of the time we avoid them...
Source: BofA
Ahead of US CPI, it's important to note that the data point tends to weigh heavily on bond yields -- up or down.
Source: Bloomberg, Markets & Mayhem
Markets are currently anticipating the first Fed cut in September and a potential second cut in December.
This week's US inflation data could shift these expectations backward or forward depending on how the data comes in. Source: Markets & Mayhem
In 1971 the US came off the gold standard
Source: Game of Trades, Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟
JUST IN: Argentina to print its first 10,000-peso note as a result of hyper-inflation.
Source: Radar
In case you missed it...
Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP Now latest 4.18%, vs last 3.31%...
Shocking stat of the day by The Kobeissi Letter:
US net interest payments as a percentage of federal revenues are set to reach 34% by 2054. This means that ONE THIRD of all government revenue would be spent only to service the national debt. Over the past 8 years, the percentage has already doubled to ~15% and is at its highest in 3 decades. Meanwhile, nominal annualized interest payments have crossed above $1 trillion for the first time ever. We could see $1.6 trillion in annual interest expense by the end of the year if the Fed leaves rates steady. The US government needs lower interest rates more than anyone - i.e Fiscal policy leads monetary policy. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Peter G.Peterson
Global debt rose by $1.3tn to a new ATH of $315tn in Q1 2024.
Moreover, after 3 consecutive quarters of decline, global debt-to-GDP resumed its upward trajectory in Q1 2024. Emerging market debt topped $105tn in Q1 2024, w/largest increases coming from China, India, Mexico. Source: HolgerZ, IIF
