The consumer is borrowing more than they can afford to pay
The consumer default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has seen a sharp spike to 7.51% This level is higher than the: - Dot Com bubble - Financial Crisis - C-19 With credit card interest rates still above 20%. Consumers are going to continue feeling the pressure. Source: Game of Trades
Bank credit has now entered contraction territory. After witnessing one of sharpest declines on record
Since 1974, this has only happened ONCE: → The Financial Crisis. Back then, this metric reached levels as low as -5%. At the current rate, the risk of a credit event is on the rise. Source: Game of trades
Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September
The PPI for final demand advanced 0.5% from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The cost of gasoline increased 5.4% The biggest driver of today's PPI beat: a near record surge in PPI Deposit Services. In other words high rates (and inflation) lead to higher rates (and inflation) Source: www.zerohedge.com
German inflation in September fell to its lowest rate since outbreak of war in Ukraine, confirming prior estimates
CPI slowed to 4.5% in September YoY from 6.1% in August. Headline CPI is now lower than Core CPI BUT food prices are already on the rise again. Compared to previous month, food has become 0.4% more expensive. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Average interest rate on a US 30-year mortgage rises to 7.95%, its highest since July 2000
Mortgage demand also just fell to its lowest level since 1995. 8% mortgages are the new normal. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The global EPS cycle continues to improve, with nominal GDP growth continuing to support the cycle
Source: SocGen, TME
In the last 8 decades, savings as a percentage of national income has ONLY contracted three times:
2008 - Great Recession. 2020 - Covid Pandemic Crash. 2023 - The Everything Bubble. Source: Whalewire
BREAKING: Average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rises to 7.93%, its highest since July 2000
Since January 2021, less than 3 years ago, interest rates have gone from 2.65% to 7.93%. This means that homebuyers just 3 years ago would see their interest rate TRIPLE if they decided to move. This is exactly why existing home sales are at their lowest since 2010. The average new home is about to cost LESS than the average existing home for the first time since 2005. You know something is wrong when old costs more than new. Why sell if your mortgage rate triples? From The Kobeissi Letter
