An ugly canadian CPI, surging crude oil prices and cautious positioning ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision have pushed #us treasuries yields to their highest since 2007...
Bonds are now at their cheapest to stocks since Oct 2007... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
From October onwards, US consumers face a double whammy: student loans + auto loans...
Suspended Student loan payments helped fuel the auto market over the last several years. Auto loans pass Student loans in consumer debt load for the first time in 13yrs, which means consumers face a double-whammy starting in October w/existing auto payments & resumed student loan obligations. Auto loan delinquencies are on the rise and more consumers could fall behind if unemployment increases. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Why German industrial model is at risk in one chart...
Without reliable access to affordable power, Germany fears energy-intensive companies will invest elsewhere, and “we will lose this industrial base,” vice-chancellor Robert Habeck said. Source: Eurostat, Gustavo Philippsen Fuhr
Have you ever heard about mortgages in negative amortization?
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, three of Canada's largest banks are seeing ~20% of their outstanding mortgages in negative amortization. What does this mean? Monthly payments on ~20% of mortgages at BMO, TD, and CIBC are no longer enough to cover interest expense. This means you end up owing more than your original loan amount over time. Typically, variable rate mortgages with fixed payments experience this in a rapidly rising interest rate environment. These homeowners may begin to foreclose over the next few months. This is an important trend worth watching.
It is official? Total US Debt surpasses $33 trillion for the first time. For those keeping tabs, the US added $1 trillion in debt in just 3 months
Cartoon: Gary Varvel
Translation: If you exclude everything you need in life, inflation has been vanquished!
Source: Barchart
Hard landing vs. Soft landing assets
Source: BofA
From Wall Street to Main Street (aka workers want a bigger piece of the cake) => UAW members go on strike at three key auto plants after deal deadline passes
Half of US auto production is going offline tomorrow. - Thousands of United Auto Workers members went on strike at three key plants, after Detroit automakers failed to reach deals with the union by a Thursday night deadline. - The selected plants produce highly profitable vehicles for the automakers that largely continue to be in high-demand. About 12,700 workers – 5,800 at Stellantis, 3,600 at GM and 3,300 at Ford – will be on strike at the plants in total, the union said. The UAW represents about 146,000 workers across Ford, GM and Stellantis. Source: Goldman, CNBC
