ECB's Lagarde: "Rate cuts weren't discussed, would be totally premature".
Meanwhile, markets see the first ECB cut at April 2024 meeting. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
G7 vs. BRICS GDP
Source: Visual Capitalist, Barchart
Welcome to Zombie Land
"There are some serious problems in small-caps, especially in the US. Good luck paying interest without profits. Great chart via Soc Gen showing the distribution of stock forward P/E valuations in the MSCI Europe small cap and Russell 2000 index. Source: SG, Themarketear, Lance Roberts
A Big drop in US flash PMI selling price gauge in October brings the FOMC 2% target into focus for the first time in three years
Source: Chris Williamson
German business outlook is improving, feeding rebound hopes
Ifo expectations index rose to 84.7 in Oct, up from 83.1 in Sep and way better than BBG consensus of 83.5. "What we see here does suggest that we see a certain stabilization,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest told BBG. “The German economy will be shrinking this year, but for the final quarter we do expect a stabilization, slight growth.” Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The Kobeissi Letter >>> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion
If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here?
Startups are increasingly shutting down
Rising rates, lower liquidity and reduced risk appetite are hurting funding. Difficult business conditions are eroding viability further. Source: Markets & Mayhem
Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US:
- US Government Debt to GDP = 98th percentile - SP500 Cyclically-adjusted-PE ratio = 99th percentile - US Consumer Price Index YoY change = 88th percentile Sounds like an interesting trifecta... Source: Crescat Capital
