Here’s a look at the four 10%+ corrections we’ve had in the last two years
Just registered 4 last week. How deep will this one end up being? Source: Bespoke
The S&P 500 is now down over 10% from its high in late July, the largest drawdown thus far in 2023
Is such a decline unusual? Not at all according to Charlie Bilello. A 10% intra-year drawdown has happened every 1.6 years on average.
It’s not a disconnect between macro view and S&P 500, it’s simply Mag7 euphoria driving the divergence
S&P 493 is valued more in line with macro expectations. Source: BofA, Michel A.Arouet
Magnificent Seven? How about Magnificent Mondays?
While the S&P 500 is up over 10% YTD, without Mondays it would be fractionally lower. Source: Bespoke
The SP500 has now lost $3.5 trillion in value since the Fed removed a recession from their forecast
The Fed marked the exact high in July 2023 with their "no recession" call. Since then, the S&P 500 is down 9% and just hit its lowest level since May 31st. We are also 1% away from entering correction territory just as earnings season begins. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
MARKET BREADTH NEGATIVE ALERT >>>
SP500 Market Breadth drops to lowest level of the year as only 35.38% of Index Stocks are trading above their 200 Day Moving Averages Source: Barchart
This is the first time since 2000 that Treasury Bills are yielding higher than the S&P 500 earnings yield
Even during the 2008 Financial Crisis, cash never yielded higher than S&P 500 earnings. And the gap between the SP500 earnings yield and cash is widening. Competition from cash and bond yields versus stocks keeps rising. For a USD-reference account investor, here's the median Return by Asset Class: 1. High Yield Savings Accounts: 5.5% 2. 6-Month Treasury Bill Yield: 5.0% 3. Investment Property Cap Rate: 4.5% 4. S&P 500 Earnings Yield: 4.2% Bottomm-line: Cash and Treasury Bills are now paying a HIGHER yield than real estate and the S&P 500. In other words, risky assets are paying less than risk-free assets, i.e taking a risk is compensated LESS than just holding cash. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Wondering why high interest rates hasn't hurt sp500 performance so far?
Just have a look at the chart below courtesy of Linas Beliūnas. The S&P 500 heavy weights are full of cash and have been benefiting from the higher yield paid on short-term deposits. E,g Apple is making $1 billion on their cash holdings doing absolutely nothing...
