Sell in May and go away? Not in election years…
History shows that the mid-May to mid-June seasonal period is very strong during election years. Source: David Marlin, Goldman Sachs
The real price of the S&P500 has never exceeded the 1929 highs...
...If adjusted for M2 money supply growth 💸 Source. Nicolas Cheron
Don't fight the Mag 7?
The ratio of the Mag 7 vs the S&P 493 (S&P 500 ex Mag 7) has just hit another ATH. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The S&P 500 $SPX - it has now reclaimed its 50D moving average
Source: Barchart
The SP500 in gold terms has gone nowhere since 2017 + it’s hard to ignore this massive head and shoulders taking shape.
Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Bespoke about yesterday's last hour of trading =>
"Based on the history, with the index up 113 bps at 3:00pm, the SP500 had a 99% chance of closing green. Its failure to do so is a remarkable stumble, to say the least." Source: Bespoke
~33% of all S&P 500 stock trades are now executed in the last 10 minutes of the trading session.
This is up from ~27% in 2021 and has been steadily increasing over the last few months. The entire trading session lasts for 390 minutes, but ONE THIRD of all trades are done in the last 10. Interestingly, assets of passive equity funds such as ETFs have risen to nearly $12 trillion in the US, according to Bloomberg. These funds usually execute their trades near the end of a trading session. This explains the significant spike in volatility at the end of the day. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
Projected Q1 earnings for the S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 (left-hand chart) vs. Projected Q1 earnings for the Mag 7...
Source: Bloomberg
