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Nobody can predict at the moment how the Middle East situation will unfold, but if history is a guide market impacts of geopolitical scares are usually short lived
Will it be different this time? Source: Michel A.Arouet
The bull-market is one-year old and the leadership has been unusual
• Since 1980, every single end to a bear market and start of a new bull has been accompanied by a broad rally in stocks, with the Equal Weight Index and small-caps stocks outperforming the S&P 500. • This time is different: the S&P 500 is heavily influenced by the 10 largest companies, which have enjoyed outsized returns. The so-called "magnificent seven" (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla) are up 77% over the past 12 months. But the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which assigns the same weight to all the stocks that are included, is up a more modest 11% for the same timeframe. Small-cap stocks are up 5%. Source: Edward Jones
Equal Weighted S&P 500 is currently trading under its 200 Day moving average by 4.2%, the most this year
Source: Barchart
A big intra-day reversal yesterday...
The SP500 just made a near 100 point reversal in 2 hours, adding +$660 billion in market cap... After jobs report numbers nearly doubled expectations, we saw a sharp move lower Friday morning. Expectations of a more hawkish Fed grew which pressured equities. But later in teh session, markets started buying the news on hopes of downward revisions and adjustments in the numbers... Source: Barchart, The Kobeissi Letter Activate to view larger image,
You are here...October and November alone have the highest average monthly return relative to any other months of the year
Source: TME, Equity Clock
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