ANALYSTS ARE RAISING QUARTERLY S&P 500 EPS ESTIMATES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE Q3 2021
At the end of the earnings season for the second quarter, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter? The answer is no. During the months of July and August, analysts increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 0.4% (to $56.10 from $55.86) from June 30 to August 31. While analysts were raising EPS estimates in aggregate for the third quarter, they were also increasing EPS estimates for the fourth quarter. The bottom-up EPS estimate for the fourth quarter increased by 0.6%. Source: Factset
Is the US stock market severely mispriced?
Typically, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is well above the US 30y real yield. That has changed. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Global liquidity slump could become a drag on risk assets
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The median year since 1928 has experienced a 13% intra-year drawdown in the S&P 500, making 2023 relatively mild by comparison
The 7.8% pullback in February-March is the largest thus far. Soruce: Charlie Bilello
Since the COVID Crash lows in March 2020, US equity markets have more than doubled the performance of bonds
As shown below, that's the best performance ever over a similar time window, topping the strongest stocks-bonds outperformance from the tech bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Source: Bespoke, J-C Gand
Bitcoin's correlation to the sp500 has shown signs of breaking down Lower correlation boosts BTC's diversification potential
Source: Game of trades
S&P 500 to 10-year note ratio is going parabolic
Source: barchart, The Daily Shot
More than 80% of SP500 companies that have reported so far have beaten profit expectations but the returns are setting this up to be one of the worst earnings seasons over the last 11 years
Source: Bloomberg
