Current market mood
Source: Raman Iyer
The Greatest Treasury Bear Market in History
Source: BofA, Barchart
Uranium narrative has made headlines again...Prices are now back above the levels seen before the Fukushima incident in March 2011...
Source: Game of trades
Adding to that Great Rotation theme is this chart
US households account for 73% of Treasury bond buying in 2022-2023 (so far) A lot of pain being experienced for those not willing to hold to maturity amid this bond blood bath... Source: Markets & Mayhem, Goldman Sachs
Gold's normal negative correlation to the dollar (upper chart) and US bond yields continue to collapse
Highlighting the current support for XAU as an alternative investment amid rising financial risks as yields surge and investors worry about developments in the Middle East (Chart: Bloomberg)
P/E Forward for the largest US companies - Magnificent 7
$TSLA Tesla 62 $AMZN Amazon 58 $NVDA NVIDIA 40 $MSFT Microsoft 30. $AAPL Apple 28 $GOOGL Alphabet 24 $META Meta 23 Source: Vlad Bastion
For now, the monetary policy transmission route of tightening US financial conditions are NOT reaching the economy...
Indeed, an avalanche of US macro data on Thursday presented a positive blend of updates across growth (better), inflation (lower), and labor markets (looser/worse). - Economic Growth: Real GDP rose 4.9% in 3Q (consensus 4.5%) driven by strong demand across consumer and federal/state government, and inventories. However, a major contribution from inventories could in turn weigh significantly on growth in 4Q - Manufacturing: Orders for Durable and core capital goods also grew by more than expected... thanks to a massive surge in non-defense aircraft orders (so don't expect it to last). - Housing: Pending home sales rose 1.1% month over month in September, above expectations for a decline... but brace for October to be a bloodbath as mortgage rates re-accelerated. - Inflation: Core PCE prices component of the GDP report rose less than expected. - Labor: Initial and continuing jobless claims both increased by more than expected -- a positive for markets which are focused on labor market re-balancing (i.e., could benefit from less wage inflation).
Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.9%, now down 11% from Jul high, so Big Tech now in correction territory
It looks like some P/E air is being let out of the Magnificent 7 bubble... Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
