A fresh increase in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model reinforces the reasoning behind hawkish-for-longer monetary policy, which is weighing on equities and bonds
The latest model estimate shows real 3Q GDP growth of 5.9%, up from 5.8% on Aug. 16 (it was less than 4% two weeks ago). Source: J-C Gand, Atlanta Fed
Lira Rallies as Turkey stuns with biggest rate hike in years
The central bank raises benchmark rate by 750 basis points. Turkish currency surges more than 5% against the dollar. The Monetary Policy Committee, under Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, raised the benchmark one-week repo rate to 25% from 17.5%, the sharpest increase since 2018. Most economists polled by Bloomberg predicted a hike to 20%. It’s the latest indication that Turkey’s new administration is prepared to move away from the unorthodox policies — including ultra-loose borrowing costs — that were championed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan but caused foreign traders to flee the country’s bond and stock markets en masse. Source: Bloomberg
EU Composite PMI... monetary policy works with a long and variable lag...
Source: Macrobond, Nordea
Since the COVID Crash lows in March 2020, US equity markets have more than doubled the performance of bonds
As shown below, that's the best performance ever over a similar time window, topping the strongest stocks-bonds outperformance from the tech bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Source: Bespoke, J-C Gand
If Nvidia continues like this, the chip company will soon be as big as all 40 Dax comps combined
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The secret wallet that bought $3,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin in the last 3 months belongs to Robinhood
While the market panicked, they bought. Source: Crypto Rover
U.S. Home Purchase applications drop to lowest level in nearly 30 years
Source: Bloomberg, Barchart
Nvidia CEO: "Software Is Eating the World, but AI Is Going to Eat Software" (and Nvidia eats AI?)
After Nivdia $NVDA earnings 🚀🚀🚀 yesterday: 1. Nvidia is now worth 8.8x more than Intel 2. Nvidia is now worth 6.9x more than AMD 3. Nvidia is now worth nearly 3x as much as JP Morgan by market cap 4. Nvidia is now the 5th most valuable public company 5. Nvidia expects $183 million in revenue per DAY in Q3 6. EPS increased by nearly 900% since last year 7. Short sellers have now lost nearly $10 BILLION this year Source: Baris Aksoy, The Kobeissi Letter
