The Bank of Japan is purchasing government bonds at a record pace this year
A factor that likely prompted its recent move to allow larger yield movements to reduce the strain on its control of longer-term #interestrates. Source: Bloomberg
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany
Producer Prices drop for 1st time since 2020, a good leading indicator for Consumer Prices. In July, producer prices (PPI) fell by 6.0% YoY, the biggest decline since October 2009, when the financial crisis has caused prices to collapse. Last year, the prices received by manufacturers for their goods had at times risen at a record rate of 45.8%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Overnight, Chinese banks made a smaller-than-expected cut to their benchmark lending rate
(cut 1-year rate by 10bps; no change in 5-year while the market was expecting a 15-basis-point cut on both rates) and avoided trimming the reference rate for mortgages, despite the PBOC urging lenders to boost loans. Banks’ failure to follow the central bank suggests they were unprepared, but that cuts to their lending rates may still arrive in the coming months.. Meanwhile, The Hang Seng Index declined as much as 1.8% and was set for its lowest close since November. Shares in mainland China also dropped into a second day, with finance stocks among the worst performers. Source: Bloomberg
Higher real rates and an upward-trending dollar spell trouble for Gold, with ETF outflows and shrinking longs in the futures market underlining weaker investor appetite
The metal has fallen below the 200-day average, with both the 100-day and 50-day moving averages trending lower. And given gold’s propensity to trend, this is NOT a positive for Gold. However, a quiet season in the jewelry market should see some pick up as the Hindu festival of Diwali approaches in November. This event is associated with gold gifting, and kicks of a wedding season in India that also features strong demand. Source: Bloomberg
Ahead of Jackson Hole this week, Atlanta Fed GDP Now for US real GDP in 3Q is at 5.8%...
Way ahead of Street consensus and with a clear acceleration since early August...
More often than not, stocks rise the week after Jackson Hole Will this year follow the pattern, or will it be one of the outlier years with a sell-off?
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg
China’s central bank issues Sunday statement
They said that on Friday, China’s central bank and financial regulators met with bank executives and told lenders again to boost loans to support a recovery, adding to signs of heightened concern from policymakers about the deteriorating economic outlook. Authorities also urged for adjustments and an optimization of policies for home mortgages at the meeting on Friday, according to a statement from the People’s Bank of China on Sunday, without elaborating on the housing initiatives. China is expected to make the biggest cuts this year to two of its core lending rates as pressure mounts on policymakers and banks to reverse slowing momentum and revive flagging demand in the world’s second-biggest economy.
Major reserve currencies since 1250
by James Eagle
