Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

11 Oct 2022

#nasdaq

Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) at a critical juncture. A break from its current support could accelerate the downside. Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital

11 Oct 2022

#china #banking

Banking assets in China have grown 7 fold since the Global Financial Crisis. That completely dwarfs the growth of other major economies. China’s banking assets are almost 3x of its GDP. Hong Kong is close to 9.3x today. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg

11 Oct 2022

#us #earnings

Third-quarter earnings season begins next week with several big banks reporting; Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley all set to report. Source: Earnings Whispers

11 Oct 2022

#sp500 #presidential-cycle

S&P Performance from November through April in Mid to Pre-election Years. Source: waynewhaley

11 Oct 2022

#reits #commodities

Cross-assets chart of the day: real estate (Dow Jones US REIT index) expressed in commodity prices ($REIT:$CRB). Will the asset rotation last? Source: Tuur Demeester

11 Oct 2022

#us #equities #sector #performance

Energy stocks continue to significantly disconnect from the rest of the market. Let’s not forget: - At 11% FCF yield, the overall sector remains cheap; - It remains a low weight in main benchmarks and is underinvested by most fund managers; - While the sector is not ESG friendly, many Oil majors are now becoming more responsible and are investing into Renewables. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg

11 Oct 2022

#german #mortgages

It‘s a huge difference if someone buys property with 0,8% or 4% mortgage just one year later.. Yields of German mortgage-backed securities (so-called Pfandbrief) have risen to highest level since 2011. Consumers have to pay almost 4% for 10y mortgage loans, 4 times as much as at the start of the year. Volume of mortgage loans has slumped 16% YoY. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

11 Oct 2022

#uk #gilts

UK market borrowing costs coming back up. 30 year Gilt yields now only 52 basis points off post Mini Budget panic peak. 10 year Gilt yields only 19 basis points off... Issues remain 1) Treasury has huge borrowing needs next few years 2) BOE about to start QT (selling gilts on Oct 31st) 3) LDI (Liability driven investments) funds are underwater on highly volatile assets. Quite a few "too big to fail" institutions are heavily exposed to UK Bonds and Gilts Source: Ben Chu

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks